The equal-weight S&P 500 just completed a historic drawdown recovery, signaling a 100% historical win rate six months out. However, rising PE/VIX spreads and bearish seasonality in Energy warn of choppy summer trading ahead.

The Financials sector has badly lagged the overall market in the past year. Is it time to play for a reversal of fortune? Timing that kind of thing is difficult and fraught with peril. However, a variety of relative strength, internal performance, and insider activity indicators suggest that now is the time to at least put this sector "back on the radar."

A market signal tracking the spread between the S&P 500 forward P/E ratio and the VIX has crossed a key threshold for the first time in months. Historically, this condition suggests a bumpier ride but strong positive returns for stocks over the next year.

Energy is entering a short, favorable seasonal window. That's the good news. But energy often experiences weakness in the middle of the year. We detail the history - and a possible sentiment related yellow flag - herein.

European equities have staged a powerful short-term breadth thrust as global participation surges. While positive for the STOXX Europe 600, history shows this macro signal primarily fuels major outperformance for the S&P 500.

The equal-weight S&P 500 recently completed a rare and rapid recovery from an 8% drawdown in just 42 trading days. Historical data reveals that similar fast-paced recoveries have consistently preceded strong forward returns for the average stock, with tech and consumer discretionary leading the way.

Due to the pattern of the planting cycle in the U.S., corn futures have been one of the most reliable seasonal markets over a number of decades. The corn seasonal trend pattern suggests that a specific opportunity is setting up now. Traders are reminded, however, that there are no sure things in trading, particularly regarding seasonality.

The stock market is flashing near-term warning signs with stacked Nasdaq alerts and crumbling S&P 500 breadth. However, historical momentum and structural bull market drivers remain intact, favoring large-cap outperformance.

Part II takes a closer look at how the S&P 500 has historically performed, depending on whether the JK Misery Index was favorable or unfavorable.