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TradingEdge Weekly for May 29 - RSP recovery signals, European breadth thrust, PE/VIX spread, energy and corn seasonality

by Sentimentrader
2026-05-29
The equal-weight S&P 500 just completed a historic drawdown recovery, signaling a 100% historical win rate six months out. However, rising PE/VIX spreads and bearish seasonality in Energy warn of choppy summer trading ahead.

Key points:

  • RSP recovered from an 8% drawdown in ~42 trading days; 6 prior signals all showed RSP higher 6 months later (avg +9%)
  • PE/VIX spread crossed back above 5.5 after a 63-day absence; 21 signals show SPX higher a year later 81% of the time, but VIX tends to spike alongside the rally
  • European breadth surged from below 25% to over 75% in under a month; historically a potent bullish signal for the S&P 500
  • Energy (XLE, OIH, XOP) enters a historically weak period mid-June through September (XLE cumulative -73% in this window)
  • Corn futures enter seasonal bearish window (May 21 - Aug 14); 22% win rate since 1981, but exceptions like 2012 gained over $7K

House view:

  • Stocks:
    • Short-term: Modestly  bullish . The VIX and CDX remain in healthy territory. U.S. equities achieved a historic breakthrough, with all three major indices setting new closing highs simulta

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