Navigating Capital Markets with Human Intuition and Machine-Driven Technology Solutions

The foundation of our investment research lies in six core analysis methods:
Market Sentiment
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Trend-Following
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Seasonality
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Macroeconomic Conditions
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Price Patterns
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Market Breadth
Plans & Pricing
Free NewsLetter

Smart Money / Dumb Money Confidence

Dumb Money Confidence is ... and Smart Money Confidence is .... This suggests an ... of ...% over the next 2 months.
Last update date:
S&P 500 ()
SMART MONEY ()
DUMB MONEY()

S&P 500 monthly statistics - April

Average return and percent positive of all trading days in the current month historically for S&P 500.

Similar Weeks in S&P 500 10-Year History

An analysis of the S&P 500 returns following historical patterns that are highly correlated with the last five-trading-day trend of the S&P 500. There are 0 patterns with a 95% similarity over the past decade.
Last update date:
S&P 500 ()
Performances after signal1 Week [%]2 Weeks [%]1 Month [%]2 Months [%]3 Months [%]6 Months [%]1 Year [%]

top stock trend score

The Absolute and Relative Trend Score Indicators use a weight of the evidence framework by aggregating ten trend-following indicators to deliver a comprehensive composite score for trend evaluation. Scores range from 0 (weakest) to 10 (strongest).
  • The Absolute Trend Score evaluates the strength of an asset’s individual trendThe Relative Trend Score gahe Absolute Trend Score evaluates the strength of an asset’s individual trend.
  • The Relative Trend Score gauges the strength of an asset's trend in comparison to the S&P 500, offering a view of its performance against the broader market.
Composite Trend Model Scoring Methodology
0 (Weakest) to 10 (Strongest)
Trend Score Condition
Relative Trend Score Conditions
Close > 50-Day Average = +1
Ratio > 50-Day Average Ratio = +1
Close > 100-Day Average = +1
Ratio > 100-Day Average Ratio = +1
Close > 200-Day Average = +1
Ratio > 200-Day Average Ratio = +1
50-Day Average Rising = +1
50-Day Average Ratio Rising = +1
100-Day Average Rising = +1
100-Day Average Ratio Rising = +1
200-Day Average Rising = +1
200-Day Average Ratio Rising = +1
50-Day Average > 100-Day Average = +1
50-Day Average Ratio > 100-Day Average Ratio = +1
50-Day Average > 200-Day Average = +1
50-Day Average Ratio > 200-Day Average Ratio = +1
100-Day Average > 200-Day Average = +1
100-Day Average Ratio > 200-Day Average Ratio = +1
Close above 63-Day High +1 until Close Below 63-Day Low
Ratio above 63-Day High Ratio +1 until Ratio Below 63-Day Low Ratio
The Absolute and Relative Trend Scores aggregate ten indicators into a composite score (0 to 10) to evaluate an asset’s individual trend strength or its performance relative to the S&P 500.
Last update date:

Stock Symbol

Trend Score

Relative Trend Score

# Days >= 8

Macroeconomic Conditions

Macro Index Model: The U.S. stock market and the U.S. economy generally move in the same direction over the long term. However, significant declines of 30% or more in the stock market are often contextualized by macroeconomic deterioration. While macroeconomic conditions do not always deteriorate before a 30% decline begins, the bulk of such declines typically occur after significant macroeconomic deterioration has taken differentiate between temporary economic slowdowns and genuine macroeconomic issues, we have developed the Macro Index, which synthesizes 11 diverse economic indicators to provide a comprehensive assessment of the current state of the U.S. economy. These indicators include:
  • New Home Sales
  • Housing Starts
  • Building Permits
  • Initial Claims
  • Continued Claims
  • Heavy Truck Sales
  • 10 year – 3 month Treasury yield curve
  • S&P 500 vs. its 10 month moving average
  • ISM manufacturing PMI
  • Margin debt
  • Year-over-year headline inflation
Bear Market Probability Model: This is a model outlined by Goldman Sachs using five fundamental inputs - the U.S. Unemployment Rate, ISM Manufacturing Index, Yield Curve, Inflation Rate, and P/E Ratio. Each month's reading is ranked versus all other historical readings and assigned a score. The higher the score, the higher the probability of a bear market in the months ahead. As outlined in a report from September 5, 2018 (see the archives), when the model was 20% - 29%, the S&P's average one-year return was +21%. But when the model was 80% - 89%, that average return plunged to -2%. So the higher the model, the greater the chance for a bear market, or at least negative forward returns.
This section features two key indicators that assess the U.S. economy's current state and stock market risks, offering insights into macroeconomic trends and investment implications.
Last update date:
S&P 500 ()
Macro Index Model ()
Bear Market Probability Model()

SPY One Month New High and New Low %

SPY 4 week high %: This shows the percentage of stocks in the named exchange-traded fund (ETF) that are currently trading at a 4-week high. This is a breadth figure, so we can see the participation among members of the fund. Oftentimes at turning points, the underlying breadth will diverge positively (at bottoms) or negatively (at tops) from the index. It is also useful to monitor extremes in the breadth figures. When so many components of an index are doing well or poorly, we usually see the index make a counter move in the days, weeks or months following the extreme.
SPY 4 week low %: This shows the percentage of stocks in the named exchange-traded fund (ETF) that are currently trading at a 4-week low This is a breadth figure, so we can see the participation among members of the fund. Oftentimes at turning points, the underlying breadth will diverge positively (at bottoms) or negatively (at tops) from the index. It is also useful to monitor extremes in the breadth figures. When so many components of an index are doing well or poorly, we usually see the index make a counter move in the days, weeks or months following the extreme.
This section shows two key indicators for the S&P 500 (via SPY ETF) tracking the percentage of stocks at four-week highs or lows. They help assess market breadth and potential turning points.
Last update date:
SPY ()
SPY 4 week high % ()
SPY 4 week low %()
SMART MONEY / DUMB MONEY CONFIDENCE
S&P 500 monthly statistics - April
Similar Weeks in S&P 500 10-Year History
top stock trend score
Macroeconomic Conditions
SPY One Month New High and New Low %
Founded in 2001, Sentimentrader is an independent investment research firm that blends qualitative insights from decades of market analysis with a quantitative approach enhanced by machine-driven technology solutions.

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Research Reports

SentimentEdge
Sentiment analysis by Jason Goepfert

ModelEdge
Signal-driven research by Dean Christians, CMT

Kaeppel's Corner
Quantitative research by Jay Kaeppel
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Liz Ann Sonders
Chief Investment Strategist
{SentimenTrader.com’s Smart Money / Dumb Money Confidence} is one of my favorite sentiment indexes…
Charles Schwab & Co., Inc
Tony Dwyer
U.S. Portfolio Strategist
Without question, SentimenTrader.com is the best value on the web. Jason’s analysis enables traders/investors to understand and take advantage of stock market behavior.
Canaccord Genuity
Dr. Alexander Elder
Author, Trading for a Living
Jason Goepfert who runs SentimenTrader is a hard worker, always looking for new angles from which to read the mass mind. If you are interested in how mass psychology affects the markets and the signals it generates, I suggest you follow the link below. Needless to say, I receive zero compensation for this recommendation — I mention this only as a service to you.
spiketrade.com
Stuart Walton
General Partner
Hands down the best value on the Street…thanks for making my job easier. Really like your style and your service.
Trek Capital Mgmt., LLC
Keith Richards
Portfolio Manager
I believe that SentimenTrader is one of the best analytical tools out there, giving traders a genuine edge in today’s uncertain markets. Jason provides a full list of sentiment and breadth indicators along with instructions for their interpretation. He also sends subscribers a daily emailed newsletter that I consider worth the subscription cost by itself.
ValueTrend Wealth Management
Fari Hamzei
Founder
Jason Goepfert’s SentimenTrader daily report is in a class by itself. Over the years, the data and analysis provided by this publication have proved insightful to me in my own analysis of the market — helping me maintain my top ranking nationally as a market timer with Timer Digest. This is the first time I have endorsed a market letter, and I am pleased to do so.
Hamzei Analytics, LLC
Don Hays
President
Jason Goepfert, President and CEO of Sundial Capital Research, is…a statistician par excellence…I would suggest that you try this service in your personal repertoire.
Hays Advisory Group
Dr. Brett Steenbarger
Psychologist and Author
Other sites that I find helpful for putting data together into a big picture view include…SentimenTrader. Lots of good…indicators are followed on the site.
brettsteenbarger.com
Dan Fitzpatrick
Founder
SentimenTrader is a unique and very valuable resource that I use to help me get a handle on what’s really going on.
Stock Market Mentor
Todd Harrison
Founder and CEO
I’ve never seen such a unique and skilled approach to sentiment and its financial applications.
Minyanville
Liz Ann Sonders
Chief Investment Strategist
{SentimenTrader.com’s Smart Money / Dumb Money Confidence} is one of my favorite sentiment indexes…
Charles Schwab & Co., Inc
Tony Dwyer
U.S. Portfolio Strategist
Without question, SentimenTrader.com is the best value on the web. Jason’s analysis enables traders/investors to understand and take advantage of stock market behavior.
Canaccord Genuity
Dr. Alexander Elder
Author, Trading for a Living
Jason Goepfert who runs SentimenTrader is a hard worker, always looking for new angles from which to read the mass mind. If you are interested in how mass psychology affects the markets and the signals it generates, I suggest you follow the link below. Needless to say, I receive zero compensation for this recommendation — I mention this only as a service to you.
spiketrade.com
Stuart Walton
General Partner
Hands down the best value on the Street…thanks for making my job easier. Really like your style and your service.
Trek Capital Mgmt., LLC
Keith Richards
Portfolio Manager
I believe that SentimenTrader is one of the best analytical tools out there, giving traders a genuine edge in today’s uncertain markets. Jason provides a full list of sentiment and breadth indicators along with instructions for their interpretation. He also sends subscribers a daily emailed newsletter that I consider worth the subscription cost by itself.
ValueTrend Wealth Management
Fari Hamzei
Founder
Jason Goepfert’s SentimenTrader daily report is in a class by itself. Over the years, the data and analysis provided by this publication have proved insightful to me in my own analysis of the market — helping me maintain my top ranking nationally as a market timer with Timer Digest. This is the first time I have endorsed a market letter, and I am pleased to do so.
Hamzei Analytics, LLC
Don Hays
President
Jason Goepfert, President and CEO of Sundial Capital Research, is…a statistician par excellence…I would suggest that you try this service in your personal repertoire.
Hays Advisory Group
Dr. Brett Steenbarger
Psychologist and Author
Other sites that I find helpful for putting data together into a big picture view include…SentimenTrader. Lots of good…indicators are followed on the site.
brettsteenbarger.com
Dan Fitzpatrick
Founder
SentimenTrader is a unique and very valuable resource that I use to help me get a handle on what’s really going on.
Stock Market Mentor
Todd Harrison
Founder and CEO
I’ve never seen such a unique and skilled approach to sentiment and its financial applications.
Minyanville
Jeffrey Saut
Chief Investment Strategist
SentimenTrader.com is an always insightful website.
Raymond James
Larry Williams
Trader and Author
Awesome work…
ireallytrade.com
Don Hays
President
If you are really into a huge and broad examination of a very wide and divergent array of market analysis...I would suggest that you try this service in your personal repertoire.
Hays Advisory Group
Gary B. Smith
Fox News Contributor and Hedge Fund Manager
One of the best “stats” men on the market is Jason Goepfert. He has a nifty site at SentimenTrader.com, and is a master at looking at data to see if it has any usefulness in predicting future market moves.
brettsteenbarger.com
Traders-mag.com
Finally there is a website where sentiment data is taken seriously and presented thoroughly and concisely. This is no doubt the most complete and accurate collection of sentiment data on the web.
Dr. Steve Sjuggerud
Founder and Editor
I highly recommend SentimenTrader.com. I personally subscribe to it, and have for years.
True Wealth, Daily Wealth, Sjuggerud Confidential
Jared Dillian
Former head of ETF trading at Lehman, Publisher of Daily Dirtnap, author of Street Freak and 10th Man
SentimenTrader does some good work.
Art Cashin
Director of Floor Operations
Sharp-eyed...a dispassionate and respected market veteran.
Barry Ritholtz
co-founder and chief investment officer of Ritholtz Wealth Management LLC
We need to find more objective ways to view and measure sentiment. That is why I find Jason Goepfert’s SentimentTrader website so intriguing. He follows an extraordinary number of indicators that track investor sentiment.
Josh Brown
Chief Executive Officer
SentimenTrader is pretty influential among people who watch things like market internals.
Ritholtz Wealth Management LLC
Walter Deemer
Founding member of CMT Association
If you want someone to monitor all the sentiment indicators for you, Jason Goepfert is your man.
Author of Deemer on Technical Analysis
JC Parets, CMT
Founder
Sentiment is one of the most important tools we have as technicians. There is a lot of data out there and I think SentimenTrader does the best job of compiling it all and making it available for both professional and retail investors.
All Star Charts
Andrew Thrasher, CMT
Portfolio Manager & Founder
Through my studying for the Chartered Market Technician designation I learned more of the importance of sentiment data. SentimenTrader is the gold-standard in my opinion for curating all that is sentiment, from surveys, to fund flows, to proprietary data sets, to COT data, they have it all. Each morning I make a point to read their daily newsletter and often learn something new about a market move I wouldn’t have been able to read about anywhere else.
Thrasher Analytics
Bill Fleckenstein
Fleckenstein Capital
'ason’s unique blend of daily market analysis and historical precedent provides readers with a balanced technical view of the market at a very fair price.
Fleckenstein Capital
Napatree Capital
We’ve been subscribing to SentimenTrader for many years. Jason Goepfert and his team do a great job of disseminating investor behavior.
Phelps Salter
Retired RIA
In my fifty-year professional career in the investment business (stockbroker, trust investment officer, and the last forty years as a Registered Investment Adviser), I have always placed investor sentiment very high in my decision-making process. SentimenTrader fits the bill perfectly! Thank you, Jason, for producing such a valuable investment service; keep up your great work.
Client Prior to 2018
Adam Koós
RIA Wealth Management Advisor
I've been using SentimenTrader for years... YEARS. I analyze a plethora of charts on a weekly basis, but I don't have the time to crunch data in the way they do, which also happens to be in a manner that is both informative and make sense. I've unsubscribed from several resources over the years, but I can never bring myself to turn off the switch on ST. There's just too much value for the cost.
Client Prior to 2018
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Asset Management Consulting
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Client Since 2020
Bruno Estier
Financial Market Technical Analyst
Very good analysis.
Client Prior to 2018
Simon Maierhofer
Financial Newsletter Writer
SentimenTrader has set the standard for a fact-based approach to investing.
Client Prior to 2018
Elliott Wave Principal
...SentimenTrader is a great resource that gives me a comprehensive take on the status of market sentiment at any point in time.
Client Prior to 2018
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Hedge Fund Trader
A lot of stock market myths have been dispelled thanks to SentimenTrader!
Client Prior to 2018
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Long/Short Institutional Investor
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Client Prior to 2018
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I appreciate the richness of data provided.
Client Prior to 2018
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Professional Trader
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Client Prior to 2012
Professional Trader
Professional Trader
Sentiment, hedgers data, and seasonality are absolute essentials for any serious analysts or professional traders out there, in my humble view.
Client Prior to 2018
Casual Retail Trader
As a long time SentimenTrader subscriber, I really find value in your service. Your insights are unique and timely.
Client Prior to 2018
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Retired CIO
Excellent, balanced research product.
Client Prior to 2018
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Casual Retail Trader
Very easy-to-use, informative research tool. I would not want to manage my portfolio without the tools and research provided.
Client Prior to 2018
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Worth every penny. Provides insights into sector and market direction.
Client Prior to 2018
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Casual Retail Trader
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Client Since 2019
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Non-Casual Retail Investor
Brilliant, pertinent information on what's going on in the markets. Helps with the big picture. Thank you.
Client Since 2019
Casual Retail Trader
I read SentimenTrader every day; and always check in before making any investment decision.
Client Since 2020
Michael Dollar
CIO
I have used SentimenTrader for a very long time. Jason's work in 2009 helped our performance tremendously.
Client Prior to 2018
Professional Trader
SentimenTrader provides a large amount of high-quality reports and tools, as well as data, which are especially helpful for people who manage funds and conduct economic research.
Client Since 2020
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