Reports Library

Seasonality is best not used as a standalone indicator. However, at times, seasonality can be used to highlight potential opportunities with a strong likelihood of success. Herein, we highlight four markets that may benefit from strong seasonal tailwinds in the weeks and months ahead.

Brazilian equities have triggered a massive breadth thrust, with the Ibovespa McClellan Oscillator surging above +100. While the local index boasts a historic 100% win rate over 1–5 months, non-local investors must weigh currency risk.

The Conference Board LEI has flipped favorable alongside a historic value stock momentum thrust. However, repeated breadth divergences, semiconductor drawdowns, and a dot-com-level Shiller PE ratio above 40 warn of near-term tactical turbulence.

A breadth-based market model tracking S&P 500 participation across multiple timeframes triggered a new warning signal. After similar alerts, the index typically struggled through a drawdown over the next three months before recovering, with roughly four out of five instances posting positive one-year returns but maximum losses exceeding maximum gains at every horizon out to six months.

Seasonality is best not used as a standalone indicator. However, at times, seasonality can be used to highlight potential opportunities with a strong likelihood of success. Herein, we highlight four markets currently facing daunting seasonal headwinds in the weeks and months ahead.

The S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite have triggered simultaneous weekly reversals near record highs. While this thrust fuels long-term FOMO, dot-com valuation analogs warn of elevated near-term volatility and fragile tactical risk profiles.

The Value factor has lagged the Growth factor for the better part of two decades. That dynamic may be in the process of changing. Now is a time for investors to (finally) take a closer look at Value.

A stress test on semiconductor leadership shows SMH has slipped into a double-digit drawdown while Relative Trend Scores remain near maximum. Historical setups lean constructive over intermediate windows, but the AI-bubble backdrop and volatile maximum-loss tails argue for patience rather than confidence.

A positive reversal in the Leading Economic Indicators has typically been a favorable sign for both the economy and the stock market. But, some sectors more than others, one in particular. Details herein.