Consumer Confidence recently plunged to an all-time low. Meanwhile, our venerable Macro Index Model is suggesting something entirely different. So which measure will prove correct? To answer that question, we (what else?) analyze the historical data herein.

The Equity Risk Premium crossed above -0.85 and back below in five trading days — a whipsaw seen only 16 times since 1969. Combined with a Stock/Bond Ratio above 1.9, history shows stocks rally 76% of the time a year later.

Employment trends can be measured in a variety of ways, and different measures can imply different conclusions. Herein, we detail one specific employment trend that does not get much attention but is presently flashing a clear - and somewhat surprising - signal.

The Equity Hedging Index has plummeted below 25% alongside collapsing put/call ratios and CDS premiums. While this broad evaporation of hedges is historically bullish, a sudden spike in Rydex bear assets warrants tight stops.

The equal-weight S&P 500 just completed a historic drawdown recovery, signaling a 100% historical win rate six months out. However, rising PE/VIX spreads and bearish seasonality in Energy warn of choppy summer trading ahead.

The Financials sector has badly lagged the overall market in the past year. Is it time to play for a reversal of fortune? Timing that kind of thing is difficult and fraught with peril. However, a variety of relative strength, internal performance, and insider activity indicators suggest that now is the time to at least put this sector "back on the radar."

A market signal tracking the spread between the S&P 500 forward P/E ratio and the VIX has crossed a key threshold for the first time in months. Historically, this condition suggests a bumpier ride but strong positive returns for stocks over the next year.

Energy is entering a short, favorable seasonal window. That's the good news. But energy often experiences weakness in the middle of the year. We detail the history - and a possible sentiment related yellow flag - herein.

European equities have staged a powerful short-term breadth thrust as global participation surges. While positive for the STOXX Europe 600, history shows this macro signal primarily fuels major outperformance for the S&P 500.