Corn enters the "Danger Zone"

Key points:

• Seasonal trends should not be thought of as "buy" or "sell" signals. Seasonal trends should be thought of as "clues" that tell us "When to where for a potential opportunity"
• With that caveat in mind, in the U.S., corn primarily gets planted in the Midwest in late winter to early spring, and harvested September through November
• As a result, risk premiums tend to rise when there is no corn in the ground, and to fall after the planting is done
• Aggressive traders might consider looking for near-term opportunities to play the short side in corn futures

Corn enters the "Danger Zone"

The planting cycle for corn in the U.S. typically results in rising risk premiums from late in the calendar year (after this year's crop is harvested and no new crop goes into the ground for many months) until mid-spring (typically mid-to-late May). After this year's crop is planted, and an assessment of the status of this year's crop is made, risk premiums tend to fall.

This seasonal tendency is obvious in the Annual Seasonal Trend chart for Corn futures below, and suggests a bearish bias between now and mid-August. The chart below highlights the period from Trading Day of the Year (TDY) #97 through TDY #155. For 2026, this period extends from May 21st through August 14th.