Reports Library

Despite the multi-year bull market, individual investors have remained surprisingly wary of each new advance. A recent signal from the AAII Bull/Bear data may surprise you. Details herein.

The yen triggered a three-part signal combining momentum, a 126-day breakout, and options skew. Its historical profile was stronger than that of 5-day-average Risk Reversal crosses at four to six months, although near-term follow-through was weak and the exact sequence is rare.

September is historically the only month with a negative average return for the S&P 500, with sectors like Real Estate and Tech leading the losses. Meanwhile, corn futures are entering an 80% win-rate seasonal window.

Herein, we examine the history of September performance for all 11 S&P 500 sectors. We also look more closely at mid-term Septembers and highlight the five worst September performers.

Sugar is entering a favorable seasonal window after a 20% early surge. Sentiment and commercial-hedger signals have also fired, but their overlap has only three completed precedents, leaving widely different outcomes and little basis for a near-term directional call.

Corn futures have surged past $5.2 per bushel amid 2026 harvest uncertainty. With a highly favorable seasonal window opening in September that boasts an 80% win rate, historical correlation models suggest the rally has room to run.

Anything can happen during any given month. That said, managing expectations - and/or being prepared to act - is key in controlling emotional responses. Several sectors have tended to show limited prospects during September over the past several decades. We highlight those sectors herein.

A fresh 252-day high in the 10-year Treasury yield has not reliably predicted continuation. Historical odds improved when bond risk was elevated while credit stress was easing, but the advantage was concentrated in the first month and rests on only 13 signals.

There tends to be a lot of "fear and loathing" regarding the stock market during September. But how much angst is really warranted? To answer that question, we analyzed 100+ years of history. The results are detailed herein.