TradingEdge Weekly for Sep 4 - September seasonality deep dive, Five sectors' seasonal headwinds, A favorable S&P 500 signal, Treasury yield breakout & credit, Corn's multi-year high, Sugar's seasonal window opens

by Sentimentrader

2026-09-04

Key points:

Five S&P 500 sectors - Materials (XLB), Industrials (XLI), Technology (XLK), Consumer Staples (XLP), and Healthcare (XLV) - are entering historically unfavorable seasonal windows between September 4 and October 14, with cumulative declines ranging from -38% to -60% over their respective unfavorable periods; traders are advised to consider defensive positioning or standing aside until the seasonal window closes.
A trading signal combining % S&P 500 stocks above their 10-day MA crossing above 40% with the 50-day MA above the 200-day MA has a 72% two-month win rate; adding a momentum filter requiring the 50/200-day MA spread to be rising boosts the win rate to 79%, and the most recent signal fired on August 28 - though bearish September seasonality and hawkish Fed signals warrant caution.
September is the only month with a negative average and median return over 106 years (44% win rate, -1.1% average loss vs. +0.8% gain for non-September months); mid-term election years show even worse results (42% win rate), and September tends to show early strength in the first three trading days (cumulative +21% since 1920) followed by weakness for the remainder (-78% cumulative).
The 10-year Treasury yield printed a fresh 252-trading-day high, but alone it has not been a reliable continuation signal - the median forward change is negative at every horizon; however, when credit stress is easing (14-day CDX below its 25-day avg), yields rise 59% of the t

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by Sentimentrader

2026-09-04

Key points:

Five S&P 500 sectors - Materials (XLB), Industrials (XLI), Technology (XLK), Consumer Staples (XLP), and Healthcare (XLV) - are entering historically unfavorable seasonal windows between September 4 and October 14, with cumulative declines ranging from -38% to -60% over their respective unfavorable periods; traders are advised to consider defensive positioning or standing aside until the seasonal window closes.
A trading signal combining % S&P 500 stocks above their 10-day MA crossing above 40% with the 50-day MA above the 200-day MA has a 72% two-month win rate; adding a momentum filter requiring the 50/200-day MA spread to be rising boosts the win rate to 79%, and the most recent signal fired on August 28 - though bearish September seasonality and hawkish Fed signals warrant caution.
September is the only month with a negative average and median return over 106 years (44% win rate, -1.1% average loss vs. +0.8% gain for non-September months); mid-term election years show even worse results (42% win rate), and September tends to show early strength in the first three trading days (cumulative +21% since 1920) followed by weakness for the remainder (-78% cumulative).
The 10-year Treasury yield printed a fresh 252-trading-day high, but alone it has not been a reliable continuation signal - the median forward change is negative at every horizon; however, when credit stress is easing (14-day CDX below its 25-day avg), yields rise 59% of the t

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