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Five sectors facing seasonal headwinds

Jay Kaeppel
2026-09-01
Anything can happen during any given month. That said, managing expectations - and/or being prepared to act - is key in controlling emotional responses. Several sectors have tended to show limited prospects during September over the past several decades. We highlight those sectors herein.

Key points:

  • When a market, index, or sector enters an unfavorable seasonal period, there are several potential courses of action (or inaction, as the case may be)
  • One possibility is to consider playing the short side; This strategy is best pursued when a) price action is also unfavorable, b) there is a tendency for meaningful declines during the seasonal window, c) a trader understands the risks involved with selling short and managing risk while holding a short position 
  • The other possibilities are to a) stand aside from that market, index, or sector until the unfavorable seasonal period runs its course (particularly if price action is not in a favorable configuration), or b) treat a pullback during an unfavorable seasonal window as a longer-term buying opportunity
  • With all of that in mind, traders might presently consider playing some defense regarding, and/or avoiding altogether, several sectors, including Materials (XLB), Industrials (XLI), Technology (XLK), Consumer Staples (XLP), and Healthcare (XLV)

The Materials sector tends to struggle from August into October

I wrote about seasonal weakness in the Materials sector on August 6th. Since then, the iShares S&P 500 Materials Sector ETF (XLB) has gained 1.9%, but has also established a clear level of resistance. Until price breaks out above the red line in the chart below, the trend re

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