Reports Library

Crude oil has staged a powerful advance since late February. However, the months of October and November have historically been unkind to crude oil. Should traders be concerned now that the calendar has changed to October? As always, we report the history; you decide.

XLU's core breadth metric skyrocketed from under 5% to 100% in less than a month. While historical backtests show a 61% probability of a short-term pullback next week, the medium-term 1-to-2-month outlook points to an 70%+ win rate.

With the S&P 500 soon entering its favorable end-of-year seasonal window, we take a closer look at S&P 500 sector performance between mid-October and the end of the year. Several notable trends have emerged over the past seven decades.

The NYSE and Nasdaq are issuing Titanic warnings together. Across 11 completed signals, average index paths lagged ordinary market performance, while staples and utilities more often outperformed the S&P 500 and are already leading during the current episode.

A washed-out IYT Optix signal and a Copper/Gold ratio plunge below 0.16 signal an impending trend reversal for transportation stocks. While short-term chop is likely, historical data points to a 96% 1-year win rate for IYT.

As the S&P 500 hovers near record highs, widening credit spreads and negative breadth warn of near-term risks. However, a rare Large-Cap Growth thrust and a rotation into Quality offer highly favorable long-term equity setups.

Interest rates tend to trend in long-term waves. Herein, we discuss tracking the major trend in long-term Treasuries using the JK Interest Rate Model.

The S&P 500 McClellan Summation Index crossed below -845 on October 7. After 15 of 19 comparable signals, emerging markets fell within two sessions and often lagged U.S. stocks, while subsequent rebounds carried substantially deeper interim losses.

The transportation sector has been a serious laggard in recent years. But one historical quirk suggests that it's time to put it back on the radar. Details herein.