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S&P 500 sectors and the favorable year-end window

Jay Kaeppel
2026-10-13
With the S&P 500 soon entering its favorable end-of-year seasonal window, we take a closer look at S&P 500 sector performance between mid-October and the end of the year. Several notable trends have emerged over the past seven decades.

Key points:

  • A favorable seasonal window is about to open for the broader stock market
  • There are no guarantees regarding performance from year to year, neither for the broader market nor individual sectors
  • Nevertheless, certain tendencies have emerged that alert investors may be able to exploit

The S&P 500 Annual Seasonal Trend will soon turn favorable

The chart below shows the Annual Seasonal Trend for the S&P 500. Note that the recent unfavorable window ends at the close on October 14th. The seasonal trend is then deemed "favorable" through the end of the year.

S&P 500 sectors and the favorable year-end window

Since 1985, a hypothetical $1 invested in the S&P 500 index from the end of Trading Day of the Year (TDY) #197 through the end of the year grew to $5.44, or +444%. The S&P has been higher 33 of 41 years during this period, or 80% of the time. For 2026, this period extends from the close on October 14th through the end of the year.

S&P 500 sectors and the favorable year-end window

Now let's dig in and take a longer-term look at S&P 500 sector performance during this

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