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TradingEdge Weekly for Apr 17 - Election cycle seasonality, VIX regime shifts, liquidity signals, NASDAQ breadth thrust, volatility metrics

by Sentimentrader
2026-04-17
The VIX falling below 20 and a new S&P 500 Liquidity Premium risk-on alert confirm a return to a calm, bullish market. Additionally, a rare NASDAQ Breadth Thrust signals strong forward momentum for equities.

Key points:

  • Calmer market regime and VIX reversal signal
  • Volume-based liquidity premium triggers risk-on
  • NASDAQ breadth thrust signals momentum shift
  • Historical favorability of election cycle months
  • New tools for measuring market turbulence

House view:

  • Stocks:
    • Short-term: Bullish. U.S. equities continue to extend their historic run, supported by a decisive shift toward a risk-on regime as reflected in both VIX and CDX compression. Drawing a historical analog to this time last year, a similar drawdown in volatility acted as a catalyst for a sustained six-month grind higher in the S&P 500. Broader technicals remain highly constructive. Barring a severe macro degradation, equities are well-positioned for further upside. This time frame covers 1-4 weeks.
    • Intermediate-term: Modestly Bullish. Market momentum (61.9) has improved significantly, but the market has not yet returned to a risk-on mode. All major indices are trading well above their 50-day and 200-day moving averages, wi

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