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Since bottoming in October 2022, the S&P 500 has advanced over 120% over the past nearly four years. Typically, one would expect to see rampant bullish sentiment by this point. Surprisingly, that is not the case. We zero in on the history of sentiment extremes and the current state of affairs herein.

The Utilities sector (XLU) is flashing extreme oversold signals as its 10-Day A/D Ratio plummets and 200-day MA participation drops below 5%. Historically, this severe internal breakdown creates a high-probability contrarian buying window.

Bond Risk Levels' 5-day average has returned to 1. Similar episodes brought weaker average SPX returns and deeper early drawdowns, but six-month outcomes converged toward ordinary periods and the 10-year Treasury record remained mixed.

The TCTM Risk Warning Model has triggered a warning signal for the first time since just prior to the sell off in March of this year. We detail the history of this signal and the near-term implications herein.

Gold mining stocks have spent the last six months consolidating after soaring almost 250% from December 2024 to March 2026. Some traders may see the latest pullback as a buying opportunity. However, the history of gold miners strongly suggests holding off a little longer. Details inside.

The S&P 500 New Low Spike Model triggered as 52-week new lows cross 7.7% near market highs. With S-TCTM Composite Risk Warning preconditions met and oil-driven inflation fears looming, historical data signals elevated 1-month correction risk.

Despite short-term breadth deterioration and surging Treasury yields, the S&P 500 is about to enter its most historically bullish 11-month midterm election window, boasting a flawless win rate for 200-day holds since 1934.

Midterm years have historically outperformed other presidential-cycle years after a late-September S&P 500 entry. The advantage appeared before election day and survived nearby entry dates, but 1930 and the deep 2018 drawdown show why a high win rate does not mean low risk.

The stock market will soon enter the heart of the four-year election cycle. What does this imply for stock indexes and sectors? Details herein.