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TradingEdge Weekly for September 25, 2026 - Bitcoin Bounce Signals, Risk-Off Model Triggered, Smart Money vs Dumb Money, Semiconductor Rally, and Election Cycle Patterns

by Sentimentrader
2026-09-25
Despite short-term breadth deterioration and surging Treasury yields, the S&P 500 is about to enter its most historically bullish 11-month midterm election window, boasting a flawless win rate for 200-day holds since 1934.

Key points:

  • Bitcoin suffered 53% decline from October 2025 to June 2026, then bounced 38%; the 200-day MA of Bitcoin Optix crossed above 44.44 on August 21st, and the monthly Coppock Curve reached oversold; the Coppock Curve strategy showed 100% win rate with 53.8% average gain while in the market only 20% of the time.
  • The NYSE Percentage of New Lows and 200-Day Average Risk-Off Model triggered a risk-off signal; historically, the two-week win rate is only 45%, and over a 0- to 3-month horizon, the frequency of drawdowns exceeding 5% consistently outpaces that of gains greater than 5%, signaling a highly elevated probability of a near-term correction; SPX masks weakness by hovering within 4.5% of its 252-day high despite severe internal deterioration.
  • The Smart Money/Dumb Money Confidence Spread moved from a significantly negative reading to back above 0 on September 16th, flashing a green light for stocks in the short term; historical signals since 1998 showed an 86% win rate with exits when spread crosses back below 0 or after 84 trading days; when Dumb Money drops below 40% and Smart Money rises above 60%, stocks are often poised to rally over the next 1-3 months.
  • The Fear & Greed Model fell to 17 at its low, then moved back above 30 on September 18; median returns after the signal were mostly positive but showed no clear advantage against an ordinary trading day (one-year median about 10% vs 11%); within the 20-30 band, signals where sentiment was r

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