TradingEdge Weekly for October 2, 2026 - Risk Warnings Mount, Sentiment Holds, Gold Miner Seasonality, Utilities Oversold Opportunity

by Sentimentrader

2026-10-02

Key points:

Gold miners are roughly 20% off their March 2026 highs and entering the weakest seasonal period (TDY #185-211, September 28 to November 3); HUI cumulative return during this period was -94.2% since 1962, GDX was -48% since 2006, though 39% of the time miners still showed gains.
The Sentiment Cycle Composite reading is 2.86, well into "Favorable" territory (above -0.60 cutoff); the Panic/Euphoria Model shows no sign of euphoria since the late 2022 bull market began; AAII Bear percentage recently reached "overly bearish" territory; the AAII Bull Ratio 20-week MA crossed above 48 on September 2nd for the first time in 6 months, a favorable signal for Nasdaq 100.
The New Low Spike Model triggered as the percentage of S&P 500 members registering new 252-day lows crossed above 7.7%; over a one-month timeframe, the frequency of maximum drawdowns exceeding 5% significantly outpaces the occurrence of gains greater than 5%; the broader S-TCTM Composite Risk Warning Model has already met its preconditions, requiring only the S&P 500's 5-day rate of change to hit -1.0% or worse to issue a formal alert.
The TCTM Risk Warning Model triggered on September 28th; historical results show negative median returns through one month and extremely subpar win rates below 50%; a systematic approach buying when the model crosses above 0.9 with 21-trading day holding period shows 35% win rate, 2.6% average win, and -7.3% average loss; the signal is most useful as

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by Sentimentrader

2026-10-02

Key points:

Gold miners are roughly 20% off their March 2026 highs and entering the weakest seasonal period (TDY #185-211, September 28 to November 3); HUI cumulative return during this period was -94.2% since 1962, GDX was -48% since 2006, though 39% of the time miners still showed gains.
The Sentiment Cycle Composite reading is 2.86, well into "Favorable" territory (above -0.60 cutoff); the Panic/Euphoria Model shows no sign of euphoria since the late 2022 bull market began; AAII Bear percentage recently reached "overly bearish" territory; the AAII Bull Ratio 20-week MA crossed above 48 on September 2nd for the first time in 6 months, a favorable signal for Nasdaq 100.
The New Low Spike Model triggered as the percentage of S&P 500 members registering new 252-day lows crossed above 7.7%; over a one-month timeframe, the frequency of maximum drawdowns exceeding 5% significantly outpaces the occurrence of gains greater than 5%; the broader S-TCTM Composite Risk Warning Model has already met its preconditions, requiring only the S&P 500's 5-day rate of change to hit -1.0% or worse to issue a formal alert.
The TCTM Risk Warning Model triggered on September 28th; historical results show negative median returns through one month and extremely subpar win rates below 50%; a systematic approach buying when the model crosses above 0.9 with 21-trading day holding period shows 35% win rate, 2.6% average win, and -7.3% average loss; the signal is most useful as

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