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The Fed's first rate hike and an MEC reading in the "Danger Zone" warn of short-term equity drawdowns. Yet, powerful long-term models like the AAII Bull Ratio and Real M2 money supply are flashing historically bullish 12-month signals.

SOXX breadth is attempting to repair while long-term participation remains intact. Historical returns leaned positive but were uneven, as AI leadership stayed dispersed, cyclical chipmakers remained weak, and industry volatility normalized.

History suggests there may be an opportunity to play the short side of soybeans in the month ahead. However, given that beans have been in a powerful uptrend, aggressive counter-trend traders need only apply. Details herein.

With Fed rate hike probabilities surging past 90%, historical data warns of a 1-to-3-month drawdown for U.S. equities. Conversely, gold and bond yields historically rally in the months following the first hike of a tightening cycle.

We recently examined how money supply trends influence the stock market. Herein, we apply a "similar but different" approach to using money supply trends to generate a favorable or unfavorable outlook for gold bullion.

The Risk On/Off Indicator ended a long risk-on stretch after deteriorating quickly. Similar signals showed no immediate weakness, but returns softened about a month later; avoiding that interval improved in-sample results without materially reducing drawdowns.

There are reasonable concerns about stocks as September unfolds. However, long-term investors with at least a six- to twelve-month time frame may take heart in recent indicator signals related to high beta versus high quality, option open interest, and IPO activity. Details herein.

The Market Environment Composite has dropped to 2, entering a historical "Danger Zone". Readings between 2 and 4 consistently generate annualized losses of -6% to -10%, warning investors to reduce risk until favorable conditions return.

Despite short-term macro fears and rising credit stress, quantitative signals remain structurally bullish. A rare AAII Bull Ratio signal and Real M2 money supply trends historically point to massive 12-month equity gains with a 100% win rate.