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TradingEdge Weekly for Sep 11 - AAII Bull Ratio fires rare bullish signal, Yen Triple Signal triggers, Real M2 acceleration favors stocks, Narrowing breadth near highs a 75% win-rate setup, QQQ long-term trend intact

by Sentimentrader
2026-09-11
Despite short-term macro fears and rising credit stress, quantitative signals remain structurally bullish. A rare AAII Bull Ratio signal and Real M2 money supply trends historically point to massive 12-month equity gains with a 100% win rate.

Key points:

  • The 20-week moving average of the AAII Bull Ratio crossed above 48 for the first time in 6 months on September 2; historically, all prior signals saw the Nasdaq 100 rise over the next 12 months with a 100% win rate and a 22.8% median return.
  • The yen's Triple Signal fired for the 15th time on September 7; at 4-to-6-month horizons, the Triple Signal historically delivers a +3.5% median return versus -1.9% for the standalone Risk Reversal signal, with a 64% positive rate.
  • When fewer than 15% of S&P 500 stocks trade near their one-year highs while the index hovers within 5% of a five-year high, the historical 1-month win rate is 75%.
  • The 1-month change in Real M2's 12-month rate of change (Variable D) has been positive as of August 2026; during favorable months since 1960, SPX showed a 62% win rate with $1 growing to $44.61 versus $3.10 in unfavorable months.
  • The SPX-to-Real M2 ratio remains above its 17-month EMA as of August 2026; during favorable months since 1960, $1 grew to $72.47 with a 63% win rate versus $1.83 in unfavorable months.
  • QQQ shows intermediate-term breadth weakness (>4% off 252-day high, <40% above 50-day MA, McClellan below -200) but with 58% still above the 200-day MA; among 16 prior signals, QQQ averaged 15.0% at one year with 14 of 16 positive.

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