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Weekend Reading
TradingEdge Weekly for Aug 14 - JK Seven-Year Cycle, NFP miss 108k, Copper/Gold below 0.16, Gold pattern caution, VIX spike 76% odds, Midterm election drawdowns, Low VIX delayed risk

TradingEdge Weekly for Aug 14 - JK Seven-Year Cycle, NFP miss 108k, Copper/Gold below 0.16, Gold pattern caution, VIX spike 76% odds, Midterm election drawdowns, Low VIX delayed risk

The JK Seven-Year Cycle projects a highly favorable equity shift by late October. Meanwhile, a bullish trifecta of Copper/Gold ratios, breadth, and insider selling contrasts with severe midterm headwinds and a looming VIX spike.
2026-08-14 at 15:00:00 PDT
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SentimentEdge report
After the Low VIX

After the Low VIX

VIX is at a six-month low even as SKEW surges and component correlation falls. Historical signals suggest low-volatility regimes often retain short-term inertia, with modest first-month drawdowns, though extreme cases warn that instability can arrive after a temporary buffer.
2026-08-13 at 10:00:00 PDT
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Kaeppel's Corner
What recent action in the Copper/Gold Ratio might mean for stocks, bonds, and commodities

What recent action in the Copper/Gold Ratio might mean for stocks, bonds, and commodities

The Coper/Gold Ratio recently dropped below a meaningful level. Previous results for stocks, bonds, and commodities make a compelling argument that traders start looking for specific trading opportunities in a variety of markets. Details herein.
2026-08-12 at 10:30:00 PDT
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ModelEdge report
The S&P 500 in August of Midterm Election Years

The S&P 500 in August of Midterm Election Years

With the S&P 500 historically dropping in August and September, midterm election years amplify the risk with average drawdowns of 17.8%. As Treasury yields remain high and Fed rate hike fears loom, prepare for potential Q3 volatility.
2026-08-12 at 08:00:00 PDT
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Kaeppel's Corner
Is the VIX Index due for a "spike"

Is the VIX Index due for a "spike"

The VIX Index has demonstrated an historical tendency to rise from August into October, but year-to-year results vary widely. Will VIX "spike" this time around? One simple measure suggests that investors and traders should at least be prepared for the possibility. Details herein.
2026-08-11 at 10:30:00 PDT
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SentimentEdge report
Gold's August Push and the Gold Bugs Chasing It

Gold's August Push and the Gold Bugs Chasing It

Historical matches to gold's latest 21-day pattern showed weak returns over the next one to two months, with results improving after three months. GDX's 98% one-year correlation with gold and above-1 beta make it a higher-risk expression of the same trend.
2026-08-11 at 10:00:00 PDT
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Kaeppel's Corner
Introducing the JK Seven-Year Cycle

Introducing the JK Seven-Year Cycle

A roughly 7-year cycle has done a good job of identifying periods when the stock market is likely to rise - or struggle. Details herein.
2026-08-10 at 10:30:00 PDT
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ModelEdge report
Nonfarm Payroll Miss > 100k

Nonfarm Payroll Miss > 100k

The July 2026 nonfarm payroll report missed expectations by over 100k jobs. The strong "risk-on" sentiment driven by rate cut expectations suggests equities will see a near-term upward trend.
2026-08-10 at 10:00:00 PDT
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Weekend Reading
TradingEdge Weekly for Aug 7 - Weight-of-evidence bullish signals, Bollinger Band squeeze setup, JK Economic Barometer spike, V-shaped reversal near highs, Two-sector new high, Three sectors to avoid, Copper divergence

TradingEdge Weekly for Aug 7 - Weight-of-evidence bullish signals, Bollinger Band squeeze setup, JK Economic Barometer spike, V-shaped reversal near highs, Two-sector new high, Three sectors to avoid, Copper divergence

Despite short-term August headwinds and Bollinger Band squeeze volatility, a rare convergence of bullish signals—including a JK Economic Barometer spike and extreme insider holding—points to an exceptionally strong 12-month outlook.
2026-08-07 at 15:00:00 PDT
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