Reports Library

Interest rates tend to trend in long-term waves. Herein, we discuss tracking the major trend in long-term Treasuries using the JK Interest Rate Model.

The S&P 500 McClellan Summation Index crossed below -845 on October 7. After 15 of 19 comparable signals, emerging markets fell within two sessions and often lagged U.S. stocks, while subsequent rebounds carried substantially deeper interim losses.

The transportation sector has been a serious laggard in recent years. But one historical quirk suggests that it's time to put it back on the radar. Details herein.

As the S&P 500 pushes near record highs, widening BBB/AAA credit spreads signal underlying bond market skepticism. Historically, this equity-credit divergence precedes market inflection points and heightens 1-to-2-month drawdown risks.

The real estate sector has been a dreadful laggard in recent years - and for good reason (high home prices, rising mortgage rates, remote work impacting commercial real estate, etc.). Is it time for contrarians to load up? Not necessarily. Nevertheless, shorter-term traders might be looking at an opportunity. Details herein.

High-beta leadership has reached a persistent extreme versus quality stocks. Similar signals preceded a rotation toward quality over six to twelve months, while the S&P 500 usually continued higher.

Amidst all the gloom of short-term weakness, eroding breadth, and rising rates, large-cap stocks recently crossed an important performance threshold. Historically, this has suggested something specific in terms of performance going forward. Details herein.

A massive 60k+ NFP report miss triggered a "bad news is good news" equity rally, defying historical norms where gold outperforms. While T+0 to T+5 historical returns favor continued upside, elevated 10-year Treasury yields signal decaying win rates.

Multiple risk models, including the TCTM and Nasdaq Titanic Syndrome, have triggered near-term warnings for equities as Treasury yields top 5.25%. However, extreme capitulation in the Utilities sector (XLU) offers a rare buying window.