Jason Goepfert

5-21-2020 at 5:32 pm

Daily Report : The spread between Smart and Dumb Money is narrowing; The options market hasn't done this since 2002

For the first time in months, sentiment is becoming equal between "smart money" and "dumb money" indicators. When that happens and stocks are still in longer-term downtrends, it has tended to lead to poor returns. The biggest caveat to that is if buyers persist shorter-term, it has indicated powerful longer-term recoveries.; Over the past 3 days, the Equity-only Put/Call Ratio has been below 0.5, meaning options traders turned over half has many puts as calls, typically a sign of optimism. Stocks have struggled when the ratio was this low over a 3-day period, and it hasn't happened since 2002 when the S&P 500 was below its 200-day average.

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