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A dramatic unwinding of speculative relative leadership shifts equity risk into the 3-to-6-month window. While Brazil signals a robust cyclical recovery, energy sectors face severe structural term structure exhaustion.

A daily or weekly "routine" regarding market analysis can help you assess the market objectively. Here, I present an updated overview of some of the Sentimentrader.com tools that I use and first presented a year ago. While your trading style may ultimately lead you in a very different direction, the information here should provide a solid jumping-off point.

A composite of micro-cap, small-cap, and IPO relative strength against the S&P 500 plunged from 100 to 56 in under a month. Historical fast signals suggest short-term stability but elevated risk in the 3-to-6 month window, pointing to a leadership reset rather than an immediate bear market.

The Crude Oil Term Structure just crossed above 1.05, signaling severe backwardation. Over the last 15 years, this extreme setup historically warns of deep impending weakness and double-digit drawdowns across the broader energy complex.

Based solely on seasonality, there is the potential for significant weakness in the stock market between now and early to mid-October. That said, seasonality is best used as an "alert as to what may be" rather than as an "immediate call to action." Nevertheless, right now is the time to plan regarding whether or not to "play some defense" to hedge against such an event.

An extreme one-day surge in crude oil relative to energy stocks (XLE) triggered a rare cross-asset spread alert. While historically a mild positive signal, filtering for high sector breadth and an established uptrend reveals a bearish shift in historical precedents.

Seasonality is best not used as a standalone indicator. However, at times, seasonality can be used to highlight potential opportunities with a strong likelihood of success. Herein, we highlight four markets that may benefit from strong seasonal tailwinds in the weeks and months ahead.

Brazilian equities have triggered a massive breadth thrust, with the Ibovespa McClellan Oscillator surging above +100. While the local index boasts a historic 100% win rate over 1–5 months, non-local investors must weigh currency risk.

The Conference Board LEI has flipped favorable alongside a historic value stock momentum thrust. However, repeated breadth divergences, semiconductor drawdowns, and a dot-com-level Shiller PE ratio above 40 warn of near-term tactical turbulence.