Reports Library

The S&P 500 hits record highs despite historically weak market breadth and evaporating hedges. While concentrated "Weekend at Bernie's" tech flows mask internal rot, powerful macro and seasonal momentum support the long-term bull market.

Gold mining stocks had a terrific run into March of this year and have pulled back significantly since. Where to from here? The answer to that question is hanging in the balance, and now is the time for traders and investors to pay close attention. We analyze several key related indicators herein.

The stock market staged a significant rally during the months of April and May. Will this performance have any bearing on performance for the rest of the year? History suggests that it just might. Details herein.

The S&P 500 Trend Score has remained at historically weak levels for a record duration while the index grinds to new highs. After similar extreme breadth divergences, near-term market returns are a coin flip, but longer-term failures often coincide with severe regime breaks.

The S&P 500 continues to hit fresh peaks despite unprecedented negative market breadth. While heavy mega-cap tech flows maintain the illusion of a healthy rally, historical clusters warn of a highly vulnerable 1-to-3-month outlook.

Consumer Confidence recently plunged to an all-time low. Meanwhile, our venerable Macro Index Model is suggesting something entirely different. So which measure will prove correct? To answer that question, we (what else?) analyze the historical data herein.

The Equity Risk Premium crossed above -0.85 and back below in five trading days — a whipsaw seen only 16 times since 1969. Combined with a Stock/Bond Ratio above 1.9, history shows stocks rally 76% of the time a year later.

Employment trends can be measured in a variety of ways, and different measures can imply different conclusions. Herein, we detail one specific employment trend that does not get much attention but is presently flashing a clear - and somewhat surprising - signal.

The Equity Hedging Index has plummeted below 25% alongside collapsing put/call ratios and CDS premiums. While this broad evaporation of hedges is historically bullish, a sudden spike in Rydex bear assets warrants tight stops.