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Running thin

by Sentimentrader
2026-06-04
The S&P 500 Trend Score has remained at historically weak levels for a record duration while the index grinds to new highs. After similar extreme breadth divergences, near-term market returns are a coin flip, but longer-term failures often coincide with severe regime breaks.

Key points

  • The S&P 500 Trend Score (Average) is stuck at historically weak levels while the index grinds to new highs, the longest stretch of dead breadth beneath a rising tape on record
  • The signal gives nothing in the near term, the first month is a coin flip, but the tail is the signal, the average hides everything
  • When these setups fail, they do not fail small. They coincide with regime breaks

Not the good kind

A month ago we wrote about an index that keeps climbing while fewer and fewer stocks do the work. Since then, the Hindenburg Omen has fired. The Titanic signal has triggered. Yesterday the team published a piece called "Weekend at Bernie's", the market hitting new highs while breadth collapses beneath it.

The theme is not subtle. The S&P 500 Trend Score (Average) puts a number on it. Below 5 is weak. Below 5 while the index sits at all-time highs is something else entirely.

Running thin

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