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A positive development regarding employment

Jay Kaeppel
2026-06-01
Employment trends can be measured in a variety of ways, and different measures can imply different conclusions. Herein, we detail one specific employment trend that does not get much attention but is presently flashing a clear - and somewhat surprising - signal.

Key points:

  • Many factors can influence the direction of the stock market. As a result, we prefer a weight of the evidence approach, and try to avoid fixating on any one data point
  • With that caveat in mind, it does seem relevant to highlight a recent development regarding employment and its historical implications for stock investors
  • The pace and direction of continued unemployment claims have been trending lower in recent months. While one data series is never the "be all, end all," this one seems relevant given the prevailing "gloom" regarding the economy and the seeming resignation among many that "AI is going to eliminate all the jobs"

A closer look at Continued (Unemployment) Claims

Continued claims, also referred to as insured unemployment, are the number of people who have already filed an initial unemployment claim and, after experiencing a week of unemployment, file a continued claim to receive benefits for that week. Continued claims data are based on the week of unemployment, not the week when the initial claim was filed.

We prefer to use the 4-week moving average of Continued Claims (CC4WSA), which is available each week here. The chart below shows the raw data since 1967.

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