Reports Library

Despite short-term macro fears and rising credit stress, quantitative signals remain structurally bullish. A rare AAII Bull Ratio signal and Real M2 money supply trends historically point to massive 12-month equity gains with a 100% win rate.

In Part 1 and Part II, we highlighted indicators based on analyzing the money supply using the M2 data series. Here in Part III, we combine those two indicators into a simple model for deeming the outlook for stocks as favorable or unfavorable.

In Part I, we looked at how short-term changes in the money supply can affect stocks. In Part II, we look at performance based on the trend in the relationship between stocks and the money supply.

Short-term breadth in the Nasdaq 100 has weakened while a majority of members remain above their 200-day averages. Similar setups offered little immediate direction, but healthier long-term breadth historically coincided with a smaller six-to-twelve-month downside tail.

One accurate assertion states that "money moves the markets." This series of notes will examine how changes in the money supply influence financial markets, including stocks, gold, and Bitcoin. Part I focuses on how monthly changes in the money supply can influence stock prices.

Conventional technical analysis claims narrowing breadth near market highs is bearish, but historical data proves otherwise. When under 15% of S&P 500 stocks sit near 1-year highs while the index hovers near peak levels, it boasts a 75% 1-month win rate.

Despite the multi-year bull market, individual investors have remained surprisingly wary of each new advance. A recent signal from the AAII Bull/Bear data may surprise you. Details herein.

The yen triggered a three-part signal combining momentum, a 126-day breakout, and options skew. Its historical profile was stronger than that of 5-day-average Risk Reversal crosses at four to six months, although near-term follow-through was weak and the exact sequence is rare.

September is historically the only month with a negative average return for the S&P 500, with sectors like Real Estate and Tech leading the losses. Meanwhile, corn futures are entering an 80% win-rate seasonal window.