Reports Library

The real estate sector has been a dreadful laggard in recent years - and for good reason (high home prices, rising mortgage rates, remote work impacting commercial real estate, etc.). Is it time for contrarians to load up? Not necessarily. Nevertheless, shorter-term traders might be looking at an opportunity. Details herein.

High-beta leadership has reached a persistent extreme versus quality stocks. Similar signals preceded a rotation toward quality over six to twelve months, while the S&P 500 usually continued higher.

Amidst all the gloom of short-term weakness, eroding breadth, and rising rates, large-cap stocks recently crossed an important performance threshold. Historically, this has suggested something specific in terms of performance going forward. Details herein.

A massive 60k+ NFP report miss triggered a "bad news is good news" equity rally, defying historical norms where gold outperforms. While T+0 to T+5 historical returns favor continued upside, elevated 10-year Treasury yields signal decaying win rates.

Multiple risk models, including the TCTM and Nasdaq Titanic Syndrome, have triggered near-term warnings for equities as Treasury yields top 5.25%. However, extreme capitulation in the Utilities sector (XLU) offers a rare buying window.

The Nasdaq Titanic Syndrome warning has extended beyond seven sessions. Similar signals lagged normal and matched-regime returns over the following several weeks, while six completed seven-day confirmations produced negative average returns from one through six months.

Since bottoming in October 2022, the S&P 500 has advanced over 120% over the past nearly four years. Typically, one would expect to see rampant bullish sentiment by this point. Surprisingly, that is not the case. We zero in on the history of sentiment extremes and the current state of affairs herein.

The Utilities sector (XLU) is flashing extreme oversold signals as its 10-Day A/D Ratio plummets and 200-day MA participation drops below 5%. Historically, this severe internal breakdown creates a high-probability contrarian buying window.

Bond Risk Levels' 5-day average has returned to 1. Similar episodes brought weaker average SPX returns and deeper early drawdowns, but six-month outcomes converged toward ordinary periods and the 10-year Treasury record remained mixed.