Daily Report for 11-23-2020

Jason Goepfert
2020-11-23
Daily Report for 11-23-2020
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Headlines


NOTE: I'll be taking some time away this week, so new Research posted here will be sparse. All other parts of the site will be updated as scheduled.

Bottom Line:

Smart / Dumb Money Confidence

Smart Money Confidence: 22% Dumb Money Confidence: 82%

Risk Levels

Stocks Short-Term

Stocks Medium-Term

Bonds

Crude Oil

Gold

Agriculture

Active Studies

Time FrameBullishBearish
Short-Term00
Medium-Term58
Long-Term512

Indicators at Extremes

% Showing Pessimism: 2%
Bullish for Stocks

S&P 500 Down Pressure
VIX

Portfolio

PositionDescriptionWeight %Added / ReducedDate
Stocks15.6% RSP, 10.1% VWO, 7.5% XLE, 5.1% PSCE38.2Added 5%2020-10-15
Bonds10% BND, 10% SCHP, 10% ANGL29.7Reduced 0.1%2020-10-02
CommoditiesGCC2.4Reduced 2.1%
2020-09-04
Precious MetalsGDX4.7Added 5%2020-09-09
Special Situations0.0Reduced 5%2020-10-02
Cash25.0
Updates (Changes made today are underlined)

After the September swoon wrung some of the worst of the speculation out of stocks, there are some signs that it's returning, especially in the options market. It's helped to push Dumb Money Confidence above 70%.

A big difference between now and August is that in August, there was a multitude of days with exceptionally odd breadth readings. Some of the biggest stocks were masking underlying weakness. Combined with heavy speculative activity, it was a dangerous setup.

Now, we've seen very strong internal strength, in the broad market, as well as tech and small-cap stocks. Prior signals almost invariably led to higher prices. That's hard to square with the idea that forward returns tend to be subdued when Confidence is high, but that's less reliable during healthy market conditions, which we're seeing now (for the most part).

I added some risk with small-cap energy stocks, due to an increasing number of positive signs in both small-caps and energy. This is intended as a long-term position.


RETURN YTD:  5.1%

2019: 12.6%, 2018: 0.6%, 2017: 3.8%, 2016: 17.1%, 2015: 9.2%, 2014: 14.5%, 2013: 2.2%, 2012: 10.8%, 2011: 16.5%, 2010: 15.3%, 2009: 23.9%, 2008: 16.2%, 2007: 7.8%

Phase Table

Ranks

Sentiment Around The World

Optimism Index Thumbnails

Sector ETF's - 10-Day Moving Average
Country ETF's - 10-Day Moving Average
Bond ETF's - 10-Day Moving Average
Currency ETF's - 5-Day Moving Average
Commodity ETF's - 5-Day Moving Average

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