The S&P 500 is on the cusp of falling into a correction, or around a 10% decline from its recent peak. When this happens quickly after a new high, forward returns were sketchy over the medium-term. This is the 4th such pullback in 3 years, tied with only 2 other periods since 1928.; Last week, the smallest of options traders increased their bets on a market rally, undeterred by what was likely some catastrophic losses lately. Speculative activity remains above any prior peak. Estimates of gamma exposure have plunged, a potential positive, but it's not as reliable as options activity.

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