The Nasdaq Composite has managed to put together a rare run of momentum over the past 1, 3, and 6 months. Its triple-time-frame gains have only two precedents. When both of those finally fell to a new 10-day low, the momentum bubble had been pricked.; Over the past 2 months, our Risk Level has been high, and stocks have soared despite it. That has pushed the Brier Score to a near-record level. At the same time, highly confident "dumb" money has been exactly right. Historically, they don't get to be so right for much longer.

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