Daily Report : Sentiment is the opposite of sour; Seasonality has soured


  • Jason Goepfert

    Jason Goepfert

    Published: 2020-07-20 at 17:33:35 CDT

Dumb Money Confidence has spiked and is above 80% for the first time since January. Most of the time when optimism gets this high, any further short-term gains get erased during subsequent pullbacks. This is one of worst spreads ever at this point of the year, which has a poor seasonal window.; Stocks are now entering one of their worst seasonal stretches, with seasonal peaks in the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 occurring now. This is one of the few times of the year when the S&P 500's rolling two-month forward return has averaged worse than -1% since 1999.


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