A Quick Seasonal Follow-up on Gold and Gold Miners
In this piece, Jason covered in-depth the current relative action for gold and gold miners. I just wanted to add a quick note that adds seasonality into the mix.
GLD VS. GDX SEASONALITY
As always, it is important to understand that seasonality looks backwards, not forwards. There is no guarantee that any given seasonal tendency will play "this time around" as it did in the past.
With that caveat in mind, let's compare GLD (SPDR Gold Shares) and GDX (VanEck Vectors Gold Miners ETF) seasonality, which appear in the charts below.
From a strictly seasonal viewpoint:
- It is not surprising that GLD has outperformed GDX of late, as GLD has a positive seasonal tendency over the 30 or so days, and GDX has had a negative tilt
- It should not be surprising if GLD outperforms GDX in the weeks and months ahead, as GDX has a definite downward seasonal tendency during that time, while GLD is higher to sideways.
This "strictly seasonal" outlook seems to dovetail nicely with the more thorough analysis that Jason presented in his piece.