The Dow DJIA has risen 152 times over the past 250 trading days, Jason Goepfert, senior research analyst at SentimenTrader, observed in a Wednesday note - a win rate of just under 61%. The only times it saw such consistency in the past came in April 2010 and May 2018, and both those instances preceded periods of around six months of choppy trading, he wrote.
The momentum, however, is more than a short-term phenomenon. Zooming out on the time frames, the blue-chip index has also risen in a little more than 60% of weeks over the past 100 weeks, he said, a reading that isn't terribly extreme relative to the last 40 years but that represents continued improvement after a "miserable stretch" in 2022.
Put it all together and the Dow is showing "impressive and persistent momentum on daily, weekly, monthly, and yearly time frames," Goepfert wrote.
"Because the momentum isn't isolated to a time frame or two, the current level is historically extreme, ranking in the top 6% of all readings since 1900. If we exclude the 1995-2000 bubble, the current reading would rank in the top 2% all-time," he said.
Here's another way to slice it: Goepfert observed that the Dow has risen at least 60% of the time across all four time periods - daily, weekly, monthly and yearly. That's also exceptionally rare, he found, happening only six times. But the returns following the signal weren't as pristine, largely due to the global financial crisis in 2018, he said. The period after the last signal in April 2018 also saw mediocre returns.
What happens if you put the two studies together? There have only been two instances when the Dow rose at least 60% of the time across all four time frames and when its average percentage of rising periods was 66% or higher, according to Goepfert.
"The buying pressure the index has enjoyed across time frames is truly historic. And, for the most part, this has been a good sign, at least for another 6-9 months. After that, the precedents dwindle further, especially those that show sustained gains," Goepfert said. "The 1995-2000 period is the only one that managed a prolonged, impressive continuation of the momentum, and bulls need to hope that the [artificial intelligence] revolution is comparable to the internet bubble."