Here's What Happens When the Fed Starts Cutting Rates With the S&P 500 Near a Record High

Emily Dattilo, Barron’s
September 17, 2024 at 12:00 AM UTC

In a recent Barron's article, SentimenTrader's senior analyst, Jason Goepfert was quoted, discussing the historical performance of stocks and sectors following the first Fed rate cut after a hiking cycle.

Even more uncommon? The only time the Fed began a rate-cutting cycle within 0.5% of a record close was in July 1995. On that day, the index rose 1.2% and surged 11% higher over the next six months.
Returns like that would be welcomed by investors, but SentimenTrader's Jason Goepfert cautions against placing too much weight on past performance.

"Much ink has been spilled on the implications, and we won't wade into potential macroeconomic repercussions," he wrote. "We're also not going to participate in the delusion that we can know whether this cut will precede an economic recession, which can dramatically impact future returns."

"All we can know is what we know right now; the rest is conjecture," he added. "There is a place for that, and this ain't that place."

To access Jason Goepfert's full research note and other market insights, visit SentimenTrader.com.