Data &
Technology
Research
Reports
Report Solutions
Reports Library
Actionable
Strategies
Free
Resources
Simple Backtest Calculator
Simple Seasonality Calculator
The Kelly Criterion Calculator
Sentiment Geo Map
Public Research Reports
Free Webinar
Pricing
Company
About
Meet Our Team
In the News
Testimonials
Client Success Stories
Contact
Log inLoginSign up
< BACK TO ALL REPORTS

Wall Street strategists have never been more pessimistic about the 2nd half

Jason Goepfert
2020-07-01
Wall Street strategists are forecasting a loss for the S&P 500 over the next 6 months, something they don't do often.

Wall Street has never been more confused, or apprehensive. Even while analysts have been upgrading price targets from the bottom up, strategists have hesitated to raise their price targets from the top down.

Bloomberg notes that there is a wide disparity in where strategists think the S&P 500 is going to end the year. Indeed there is - the standard deviation among year-end price targets at the end of June has never been wider, by a long shot.

Wall Street strategist year-end S&P 500 price target

What's even more notable is that strategists aren't giving the S&P much room to rally. On average, they have a year-end target of 2998, about 2% below where the S&P is trading. That's tied for the lowest-ever year-end target relative to where the S&P was trading at the end of June. Strategists by nature are optimists, so it's highly unusual to see them with such a low opinion of where the S&P should go over the next six months.

Individually, these folks are invariably smart and well-educated. Like other surveys of smart money or big money populations, though, in aggregate we can sometimes see signs of group-think, and that tends to be a contrary indicator. That's the case here, too. The S&P performed much better in the 2nd half of the year when strategists were pessimistic than when they were optimistic.


This is an abridged version of our recent reports and notes. For immediate access with no obligation, sign up for a 30-day free trial now.

We also looked at:

  • A more in-depth look at strategists' year-end estimates and how it impacted future returns
  • The S&P is both overbought and volatile, using the stochastic and a synthetic VIX index back to 1962
  • Consumer confidence has rebounded in the U.S. and eurozone
  • What it means when Black Swan risk is high according to the SKEW index
DATA &
TECHnologies
IndicatorEdge
‍
BackTestEdge
‍
Other Tools
‍
DataEdge API
RESEARCH
reports
Research Solution
‍
Reports Library
‍
actionable
Strategies
Trading Strategies
‍
Smart Stock Scanner
‍
FREE
RESOUrCES
Simple Backtest
Calculator
Simple Seasonality
Calculator
The Kelly Criterion
Calculator
Sentiment Geo Map
‍
Public Research Reports
‍
Free Webinar
COMPANY
‍
About
‍
Meet our Team
‍
In the News
‍
Testimonials
‍
Client Success Stories
Pricing
Bundle pricing
‍
Announcements
‍
FAQ
© 2024 Sundial Capital Research Inc. All rights reserved.
Setsail Marketing
TermsPrivacyAffiliate Program
Risk Disclosure: Futures and forex trading contains substantial risk and is not for every investor. An investor could potentially lose all or more than the initial investment. Risk capital is money that can be lost without jeopardizing ones’ financial security or life style. Only risk capital should be used for trading and only those with sufficient risk capital should consider trading. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

Hypothetical Performance Disclosure: Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations, some of which are described below. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown; in fact, there are frequently sharp differences between hypothetical performance results and the actual results subsequently achieved by any particular trading program. One of the limitations of hypothetical performance results is that they are generally prepared with the benefit of hindsight. In addition, hypothetical trading does not involve financial risk, and no hypothetical trading record can completely account for the impact of financial risk of actual trading. for example, the ability to withstand losses or to adhere to a particular trading program in spite of trading losses are material points which can also adversely affect actual trading results. There are numerous other factors related to the markets in general or to the implementation of any specific trading program which cannot be fully accounted for in the preparation of hypothetical performance results and all which can adversely affect trading results.

Testimonial Disclosure: Testimonials appearing on this website may not be representative of other clients or customers and is not a guarantee of future performance or success.