USA Leading The World In Surprises (Both Good And Bad)

This is an abridged version of our recent reports and notes. For immediate access with no obligation, sign up for a 30-day free trial now.

Leading the world

Most of the ways the U.S. has been surprising the world have not necessarily been the good kind. When it comes to economic reports, though, the U.S. had far surpassed other regions, to one of the most extreme extents ever.

That has started to reverse, which has been a bad sign for the dollar.

It led to mostly positive returns for the S&P 500, with October 2008 standing out as the main (and virtually only) exception.

Dow Index Death Cross

And lastly, the Dow Jones Transportation Average has made a "death cross" whereby its 50 dma fell below its 200 dma.

When this happened in the past, the Dow Jones Transportation Average's forward returns weren't necessarily bearish, but were certainly worse than random (see "Risk" and "Z-score"). This is standard for traditional price-only trend following strategies: they don't significantly beat buy and hold in the long run, but they do help traders avoid the worst bear markets.

The post titled USA Leading The World In Surprises (Both Good And Bad) was originally published as on on 2019-10-08.

At, our service is not focused on market timing per se, but rather risk management. That may be a distinction without a difference, but it's how we approach the markets. We study signs that suggest it is time to raise or lower market exposure as a function of risk relative to probable reward. It is all about risk-adjusted expectations given existing evidence. Learn more about our service , research, models and indicators.

Follow us on Twitter for up to the minute analysis of market action.

Not ready to signup up for a free trial yet?

Signup for our Daily Lite email to receive highlights of our daily report, research and studies.

Follow us on Twitter:

Subscribe to our Youtube Channel:

RSS Feed

Subscribe to the Blog RSS feed