Data &
Technology
Research
Reports
Report Solutions
Reports Library
Actionable
Strategies
Free
Resources
Simple Backtest Calculator
Simple Seasonality Calculator
The Kelly Criterion Calculator
Sentiment Geo Map
Public Research Reports
Free Webinar
Pricing
Company
About
Meet Our Team
In the News
Testimonials
Client Success Stories
Contact
Log inLoginSign up
< BACK TO ALL REPORTS

Time to Keep a Close Eye on Copper

Jay Kaeppel
2021-07-26
Copper is considered one of the most important commodities globally and is purported by many to have predictive powers regarding the economy. In light of this, traders may be wise to pay close attention to copper in the days and weeks ahead as price action, seasonality, and sentiment all give important information regarding future price direction.

A lot of people consider copper to be one of the most important commodities in the world.  Several factors appear to be coming together soon, affecting the future price direction for this key commodity.  Let's take a closer look.

PRICE ACTION

As I write, copper futures are surging, as you can see in the chart of September 2021 copper futures below (courtesy of Stockcharts.com)

For those who rely on charts to make trading decisions, the key question is, "will price take out the 5/10/2021 high of 4.884?"

For a bigger picture perspective, the chart below (courtesy of ProftSource) displays a quarterly price chart for copper futures since 1970.

There are a few key things to note:

  • Copper is presently near an all-time high, and there is an obvious resistance level above.  While this may sound ominous, any implication is mostly subjective.  Resistance levels typically matter a lot - right up until the point that they don't.  Then one day, price breaks through and moves on to unexpectedly higher levels.
  • It took Copper almost 30 years to break through the 1.50 resistance level.  It is now taking its 3rd try at breaking and holding above 4.00.  People can make all the predictions they'd like, but the bottom line is "either it will or it won't."
  • The primary thing to note from this chart is that copper is presently at an elevated price level. Until it breaks through to the upside, traders need to be very vigilant regarding potential downside risk - particularly if the 4.00 level fails to hold.

In the meantime, remember that a surge in price can be one of the most bullish signs for a commodity.  To wit, see Dean's post from earlier this year here.  As you can see in the table below, there was a favorable signal in February this year.  Previous signals have been primarily bullish during the 2 to the 6-month time frame (i.e., through 8/18 of this year), but a number have also been quite favorable 12 months out.

Let's take yet another angle in looking at price action.  The chart below (courtesy of ProftSource) displays a daily bar chart of a continuous copper futures data series along with the 70-day exponential moving average. 

As you can see in the chart above, copper is flirting with its 70-day exponential moving average (for the record, the most recent surge in price has pushed copper back above this average).  There is nothing magic about a 70-day EMA. That said, it should be noted that since 1959, copper has:

  • Gained +3,678% when above its 70-day EMA
  • Lost -61.2% when below its 70-day EMA

The chart below displays the cumulative % performance for copper when trading below its 70-day EMA.

Once again - and as obvious as it sounds - the most bullish thing copper can do is go up in price.  The three things to watch are:

  • Getting back above - and staying above - the 70-day EMA
  • Holding above 4.00
  • Ultimately breaking upside resistance above 4.88

SEASONALITY

The chart below displays the Annual Seasonal Trend for copper.

As you can see, the seasonal chart is reaching its apex.  This DOES NOT mean that copper is doomed to run out of steam and fall for the rest of the year.  All this chart tells us is that the second half of the year tends to be much more difficult for copper and that any new rally from current levels will have to come into a stiff seasonal headwind.

However, it also suggests that any breakdown in price in the weeks and months ahead (particularly below the 70-day EMA and/or below the 4.00 level) should be taken very seriously by traders.

The chart below displays the cumulative % +(-) for copper if held long from the close of Trading Day of the Year #145 through Trading Day of the Year #159 since 1959.  

The bottom line on seasonality: Copper CAN rally during these typically unfavorable seasonal timeframes - but they have been very much the exception to the rule.

SENTIMENT

Now let's look at how copper performed after:

  • The 50-day average for Copper Optix
  • Dropped from above to below 65%

The chart below displays the signal dates for this test (which you can run by clicking here).

The table below displays the summary of results following previous signals.  These results are by no means uniformly or overwhelming unfavorable during the first 3 months after a signal.  However, 6 months out, the average and median results are negative, and the median 1-year result has been a double-digit loss.  

The most recent signal was on 6/28/2021.  Based on the results above, this is by no means a "sell copper and run for the hills" kind of signal.  But it does suggest that the "clock is ticking" in terms of further upside for copper in the months ahead.

PUTTING IT ALL TOGETHER

Copper looks very vulnerable in the near term:

  • Nearing a seasonally unfavorable time of year
  • Flirting with 70-day EMA
  • Coming off of an Optix warning signal

Price is always the most important factor.  As long as copper continues to trend higher, there is no reason to "fight the trend."  However, if price, seasonality, and sentiment all line up on the wrong side, traders might consider steering clear of copper or playing it from the short side.

The time for deciding may be near, and traders are urged to pay close attention.

DATA &
TECHnologies
IndicatorEdge
‍
BackTestEdge
‍
Other Tools
‍
DataEdge API
RESEARCH
reports
Research Solution
‍
Reports Library
‍
actionable
Strategies
Trading Strategies
‍
Smart Stock Scanner
‍
FREE
RESOUrCES
Simple Backtest
Calculator
Simple Seasonality
Calculator
The Kelly Criterion
Calculator
Sentiment Geo Map
‍
Public Research Reports
‍
Free Webinar
COMPANY
‍
About
‍
Meet our Team
‍
In the News
‍
Testimonials
‍
Client Success Stories
Pricing
Bundle pricing
‍
Announcements
‍
FAQ
© 2024 Sundial Capital Research Inc. All rights reserved.
Setsail Marketing
TermsPrivacyAffiliate Program
Risk Disclosure: Futures and forex trading contains substantial risk and is not for every investor. An investor could potentially lose all or more than the initial investment. Risk capital is money that can be lost without jeopardizing ones’ financial security or life style. Only risk capital should be used for trading and only those with sufficient risk capital should consider trading. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

Hypothetical Performance Disclosure: Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations, some of which are described below. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown; in fact, there are frequently sharp differences between hypothetical performance results and the actual results subsequently achieved by any particular trading program. One of the limitations of hypothetical performance results is that they are generally prepared with the benefit of hindsight. In addition, hypothetical trading does not involve financial risk, and no hypothetical trading record can completely account for the impact of financial risk of actual trading. for example, the ability to withstand losses or to adhere to a particular trading program in spite of trading losses are material points which can also adversely affect actual trading results. There are numerous other factors related to the markets in general or to the implementation of any specific trading program which cannot be fully accounted for in the preparation of hypothetical performance results and all which can adversely affect trading results.

Testimonial Disclosure: Testimonials appearing on this website may not be representative of other clients or customers and is not a guarantee of future performance or success.