The troops are leading the general

For the first time in a month, there have been enough stocks in the S&P 500 rallying versus declining to push its Cumulative Advance/Decline Line to a 52-week (and all-time) high. 

S&P 500 cumulative advance decline line breadth

This may be notable because the S&P 500 itself was dragged lower by some of the big tech stocks that had the air let out of them in September. It's a case where the troops are leading the general.

This is supposed to be wildly bullish. To check, we looked for every time when the S&P's A/D Line made a 52-week high for the first time in at least a month, while the S&P 500 itself was more than 2.5% below its own high.

This was not a signal to put all spare cash to work and rush into a leveraged long position. Several of these signals saw medium-term choppiness, but looking at the Risk/Reward table, only 3 of the 14 signals saw a loss of more than -5% at any point within the next 3 months. 

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We also looked at:

  • Full returns following times when the A/D Line was leading the S&P 500
  • When this happened at major extremes, the signal was even more notable
  • "Smart money" hedgers are short 10-year Treasuries but long 30-years - what that's meant for the yield curve, stocks, gold, and more
  • What happens after there is a surge in breadth among utility stocks

The post titled The troops are leading the general was originally published as on on 2020-10-07.

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