The Probability of a Bear Market is Rising

The Bear Market Probability model has cycled from below 40% to above 65% in only 11 months, the fastest turnaround ever. It's not high enough to be a pressing concern though future returns decline the higher the model climbs.

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Sundial Capital Research is an independent investment research firm dedicated to the application of mass psychology to the financial markets. Sundial publishes the SentimenTrader.com website.

Our focus is not market timing per se, but rather risk management. That may be a distinction without a difference, but it's how we approach the markets. We study signs that suggest it is time to raise or lower market exposure as a function of risk relative to probable reward. It is all about risk-adjusted expectations given existing evidence.

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