The latest Commitments of Traders report was released, covering positions through Tuesday

Jason Goepfert
2020-07-31

The 3-Year Min/Max Screen shows new "smart money" extremes exclusively in currencies. Hedgers bought more of the U.S. dollar, now holding the largest net long position since January 2013. They were shorting the euro, yen, and Swiss franc. It's their largest short ever against the euro, but as a percentage of open interest, it's only the most extreme in a couple of years. They also shorted more copper. Since speculators are on the other side of hedger positions, this means that speculators are heavily net long that metal. The Backtest Engine shows that over the past 15 years, when speculators held more than 18% of open interest in copper net long, it rose over the next 3 months only 37% of the time with an average return of -1.6%.

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