Data &
Technology
Research
Reports
Report Solutions
Reports Library
Actionable
Strategies
Free
Resources
Simple Backtest Calculator
Simple Seasonality Calculator
The Kelly Criterion Calculator
Sentiment Geo Map
Public Research Reports
Free Webinar
Pricing
Company
About
Meet Our Team
In the News
Testimonials
Client Success Stories
Contact
Log inLoginSign up
< BACK TO ALL REPORTS

The Anti-Hindenburg Omen; Fed Recession Risk Rises

Jason Goepfert
2019-01-16
null

This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.

The anti-Hindenburg

A compelling reason for caution last fall was the kind of split market that triggered a cluster of Hindenburg Omen warning signs. Over the past two weeks, there has been a cluster of signals that are the exact opposite of the Hindenburg (we'll call them Apollo Prophesies just for the heck of it), and that has usually been a good sign.

After the handful of signals since 1965, the S&P managed to rise every time over the next two months, but a few of those failed over longer time frames.

Rising risk

A model from the NY Fed is showing the highest risk of recession in a decade.

It’s a mild concern, since it has a decent record of preceding recessions since 1960, and returns in stocks once risk got this high were modestly negative. For bonds, it was more of a positive longer-term.

New trend

The Nasdaq Composite is the first of the major averages to regain its 50-day average after going months below it.

Pessimism for volatility

The Optimism Index for VXX has dropped below 15 for the first time since November. According to the Backtest Engine, over the past 5 years when it has done this, the VIX “fear gauge” jumped over the next week 79% of the time and the S&P 500 rose 45% of the time.

DATA &
TECHnologies
IndicatorEdge
‍
BackTestEdge
‍
Other Tools
‍
DataEdge API
RESEARCH
reports
Research Solution
‍
Reports Library
‍
actionable
Strategies
Trading Strategies
‍
Smart Stock Scanner
‍
FREE
RESOUrCES
Simple Backtest
Calculator
Simple Seasonality
Calculator
The Kelly Criterion
Calculator
Sentiment Geo Map
‍
Public Research Reports
‍
Free Webinar
COMPANY
‍
About
‍
Meet our Team
‍
In the News
‍
Testimonials
‍
Client Success Stories
Pricing
Bundle pricing
‍
Announcements
‍
FAQ
© 2024 Sundial Capital Research Inc. All rights reserved.
Setsail Marketing
TermsPrivacyAffiliate Program
Risk Disclosure: Futures and forex trading contains substantial risk and is not for every investor. An investor could potentially lose all or more than the initial investment. Risk capital is money that can be lost without jeopardizing ones’ financial security or life style. Only risk capital should be used for trading and only those with sufficient risk capital should consider trading. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

Hypothetical Performance Disclosure: Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations, some of which are described below. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown; in fact, there are frequently sharp differences between hypothetical performance results and the actual results subsequently achieved by any particular trading program. One of the limitations of hypothetical performance results is that they are generally prepared with the benefit of hindsight. In addition, hypothetical trading does not involve financial risk, and no hypothetical trading record can completely account for the impact of financial risk of actual trading. for example, the ability to withstand losses or to adhere to a particular trading program in spite of trading losses are material points which can also adversely affect actual trading results. There are numerous other factors related to the markets in general or to the implementation of any specific trading program which cannot be fully accounted for in the preparation of hypothetical performance results and all which can adversely affect trading results.

Testimonial Disclosure: Testimonials appearing on this website may not be representative of other clients or customers and is not a guarantee of future performance or success.