Stocks, Oil Diverge As Corrections Spike

Diverging markets

Stocks surged again and neared (or hit) 52-week highs, yet crude oil fell again and closed at a 52-week low. Typically, there is more of a positive correlation between them.

S&P 500 versus crude oil

Going back to 1985, when oil diverged so much from stocks, it led to mixed returns for stocks, with slight weakness shorter-term. It was mostly the same for oil prices.

The last two signals, in 2007, and 2014, proved to be more worrisome. After those, the S&P 500 declined over the next 1-2 months, and also over the next year.

Fewer Corrections

The percentage of S&P 500 stocks in a correction, more than 10% below 52 week highs, fell over the past few months to the lowest level since early-2018 as the stock market rallied.

Various studies demonstrated that when this happened in the past, the S&P's returns over the next 6-12 months were mostly bearish since this typically happened after a major correction or a bear market:

Percentage of S&P 500 stocks in a correction

But as the S&P made a recent pullback, the % of stocks in a correction jumped more than 15%. When this figure hit a 400 day low and then jumped more than 15% over the next 2 weeks, the S&P typically rallied over the next month.

S&P 500 stocks in a correction rebounds

 In a bull market this is typical when the market experiences a period of strong momentum and then makes a quick pullback.

This is an abridged version of our recent reports and notes. For immediate access with no obligation, sign up for a 30-day free trial now.

We also looked at:

  • The Nasdaq's quick recovery from a shallow pullback
  • Yet more technical warning signs
  • Short-term breadth panic in emerging markets
  • What happens after copper ends a historic losing streak
  • Oil producer sentiment is historically pessimistic

The post titled Stocks, Oil Diverge As Corrections Spike was originally published as on on 2020-02-05.

At, our service is not focused on market timing per se, but rather risk management. That may be a distinction without a difference, but it's how we approach the markets. We study signs that suggest it is time to raise or lower market exposure as a function of risk relative to probable reward. It is all about risk-adjusted expectations given existing evidence. Learn more about our service , research, models and indicators.

Follow us on Twitter for up to the minute analysis of market action.

Not ready to signup up for a free trial yet?

Signup for our Daily Lite email to receive highlights of our daily report, research and studies.

Follow us on Twitter:

Subscribe to our Youtube Channel:

RSS Feed

Subscribe to the Blog RSS feed