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South Korean breadth

Troy Bombardia
2020-05-15
South Korean stocks are starting to roll over. Is this a sign of more weakness to come?

As I noted yesterday, a popular breadth indicator "the % of members with a MACD sell signal" will likely jump in the coming days if various stock indices fail to rally. This indicator jumped yesterday morning as stocks fell, and closed lower at the end of the day when stocks ramped higher.

There is one index for which this indicator spiked, and that's the KOSPI. The % of South Korean stocks with a MACD sell signal has jumped to the highest level in half a decade:

To repeat what I said yesterday, this isn't a consistently bearish sign for stocks. In fact, when so many South Korean equities faced a MACD sell signal, the KOSPI Index had a strong tendency to rally over the next week!

What if we loosen the parameters to increase the sample size? The following table demonstrates what happens next to the KOSPI Index when >30% of stocks witness a MACD sell signal:

Not quite as bullish for South Korean equities, but still isn't consistently bearish for the KOSPI Index on any time frame.

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