Data &
Technology
Research
Reports
Report Solutions
Reports Library
Actionable
Strategies
Free
Resources
Simple Backtest Calculator
Simple Seasonality Calculator
The Kelly Criterion Calculator
Sentiment Geo Map
Public Research Reports
Free Webinar
Pricing
Company
About
Meet Our Team
In the News
Testimonials
Client Success Stories
Contact
Log inLoginSign up
< BACK TO ALL REPORTS

Sentiment vs Earnings; Massive Buy Programs

Jason Goepfert
2018-11-29
null

This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.

Sentiment vs earnings

The S&P 500’s flat return in 2018 so far has been due to the growth in earnings being offset by a drop in sentiment. The price/earnings ratio for the index has declined about as much as earnings have grown, like 2011.

Other years since 1969 that have seen this dynamic typically showed good returns over the next year. Most impressive was the risk/reward – the S&P rallied more than 21% on average at its best point over the next year, while declining an average of only 4% at its worst point.

Everybody out, then back in

Massive sell programs hit the market multiple times near the end of October. But 2 of the last 3 days have seen just as massive buy programs come in at some point during the day. Wednesday’s TICK reading is in the top 10 of all days since 1990, which is usually a good sign longer-term, especially when coming on the heels of big sell programs.

In the medium- to long-term, it was a good sign of eager buying interest that wasn’t easily sidetracked. What’s most encouraging about this is that the huge buying interest is coming on the heels of the heavy sell programs.

Reversal

After hitting a 6-month low on Friday, the S&P 500 has jumped at least 1.5% twice in the past three sessions. That has happened 44 times since 1928, only 16 of which occurred when the economy was not in recession.

Unnatural

The Optimism Index on natural gas has soared above 80 and is the highest in more than 20 years.

DATA &
TECHnologies
IndicatorEdge
‍
BackTestEdge
‍
Other Tools
‍
DataEdge API
RESEARCH
reports
Research Solution
‍
Reports Library
‍
actionable
Strategies
Trading Strategies
‍
Smart Stock Scanner
‍
FREE
RESOUrCES
Simple Backtest
Calculator
Simple Seasonality
Calculator
The Kelly Criterion
Calculator
Sentiment Geo Map
‍
Public Research Reports
‍
Free Webinar
COMPANY
‍
About
‍
Meet our Team
‍
In the News
‍
Testimonials
‍
Client Success Stories
Pricing
Bundle pricing
‍
Announcements
‍
FAQ
© 2024 Sundial Capital Research Inc. All rights reserved.
Setsail Marketing
TermsPrivacyAffiliate Program
Risk Disclosure: Futures and forex trading contains substantial risk and is not for every investor. An investor could potentially lose all or more than the initial investment. Risk capital is money that can be lost without jeopardizing ones’ financial security or life style. Only risk capital should be used for trading and only those with sufficient risk capital should consider trading. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

Hypothetical Performance Disclosure: Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations, some of which are described below. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown; in fact, there are frequently sharp differences between hypothetical performance results and the actual results subsequently achieved by any particular trading program. One of the limitations of hypothetical performance results is that they are generally prepared with the benefit of hindsight. In addition, hypothetical trading does not involve financial risk, and no hypothetical trading record can completely account for the impact of financial risk of actual trading. for example, the ability to withstand losses or to adhere to a particular trading program in spite of trading losses are material points which can also adversely affect actual trading results. There are numerous other factors related to the markets in general or to the implementation of any specific trading program which cannot be fully accounted for in the preparation of hypothetical performance results and all which can adversely affect trading results.

Testimonial Disclosure: Testimonials appearing on this website may not be representative of other clients or customers and is not a guarantee of future performance or success.