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Sentiment Risk On/Off Indicator Buy Signal

Dean Christians
2021-06-04
The Sentiment risk on/off indicator registered a bearish to bullish reversal buy signal at the close of trading on 6/3/21. Let's review the concept and forward returns.

The Sentiment Risk On/Off indicator registered a range rank reversal buy signal at the close of trading on 6/3/21.

THE CONCEPT

The sentiment risk on/off indicator range rank model identifies when the indicator reverses from a bearish to bullish condition. The model will issue an alert based upon the following conditions. 

 SIGNAL CRITERIA

  1.  The sentiment risk on/off indicator range rank crosses below 5%. 
  2.  The sentiment risk on/off indicator range rank crosses above 68.5%

The range rank for the indicator utilizes an 84-day lookback period. So, the signal triggers when the risk on/off indicator was in the lower 5% of its range over the past 84 days and then rose to within 68.5% of its range over the past 84 days.

Please click here for a link to the sentiment risk on/off Indicator page on the website.

Let's take a look at the current chart and historical signal performance.

CURRENT DAY CHART

The trading statistics in the table below reflect the optimal days-in-trade holding period of 22 days with a hypothetical execution on the following day open. When I run optimizations for trading signals, I cap the max number of days at 42.

HOW THE SIGNALS PERFORMED

Signal performance looks promising with several notable z-scores. I would also add that it performed well on a short-term basis during bear markets. I would tip my hat to the validity of what Jason and Eric built.

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Risk Disclosure: Futures and forex trading contains substantial risk and is not for every investor. An investor could potentially lose all or more than the initial investment. Risk capital is money that can be lost without jeopardizing ones’ financial security or life style. Only risk capital should be used for trading and only those with sufficient risk capital should consider trading. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

Hypothetical Performance Disclosure: Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations, some of which are described below. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown; in fact, there are frequently sharp differences between hypothetical performance results and the actual results subsequently achieved by any particular trading program. One of the limitations of hypothetical performance results is that they are generally prepared with the benefit of hindsight. In addition, hypothetical trading does not involve financial risk, and no hypothetical trading record can completely account for the impact of financial risk of actual trading. for example, the ability to withstand losses or to adhere to a particular trading program in spite of trading losses are material points which can also adversely affect actual trading results. There are numerous other factors related to the markets in general or to the implementation of any specific trading program which cannot be fully accounted for in the preparation of hypothetical performance results and all which can adversely affect trading results.

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