Sentiment Risk On/Off Indicator Buy Signal

Dean Christians
2021-06-04
The Sentiment risk on/off indicator registered a bearish to bullish reversal buy signal at the close of trading on 6/3/21. Let's review the concept and forward returns.

The Sentiment Risk On/Off indicator registered a range rank reversal buy signal at the close of trading on 6/3/21.

THE CONCEPT

The sentiment risk on/off indicator range rank model identifies when the indicator reverses from a bearish to bullish condition. The model will issue an alert based upon the following conditions. 

 SIGNAL CRITERIA

  1.  The sentiment risk on/off indicator range rank crosses below 5%. 
  2.  The sentiment risk on/off indicator range rank crosses above 68.5%

The range rank for the indicator utilizes an 84-day lookback period. So, the signal triggers when the risk on/off indicator was in the lower 5% of its range over the past 84 days and then rose to within 68.5% of its range over the past 84 days.

Please click here for a link to the sentiment risk on/off Indicator page on the website.

Let's take a look at the current chart and historical signal performance.

CURRENT DAY CHART

The trading statistics in the table below reflect the optimal days-in-trade holding period of 22 days with a hypothetical execution on the following day open. When I run optimizations for trading signals, I cap the max number of days at 42.

HOW THE SIGNALS PERFORMED

Signal performance looks promising with several notable z-scores. I would also add that it performed well on a short-term basis during bear markets. I would tip my hat to the validity of what Jason and Eric built.

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