Data &
Technology
Research
Reports
Report Solutions
Reports Library
Actionable
Strategies
Free
Resources
Simple Backtest Calculator
Simple Seasonality Calculator
The Kelly Criterion Calculator
Sentiment Geo Map
Public Research Reports
Free Webinar
Pricing
Company
About
Meet Our Team
In the News
Testimonials
Client Success Stories
Contact
Log inLoginSign up
< BACK TO ALL REPORTS

Sentiment Is Normalizing As Technical Warnings Trigger

Jason Goepfert
2020-02-04
Smart Money and Dumb Money Confidence shows sentiment is starting to normalize. The Hindenburg Omen is triggering again.

Not quite normal

After hitting optimistic extremes – and then staying there for weeks on end – sentiment has started to normalize. It’s not quite back to a neutral range but is getting there quickly.

Smart money and dumb money confidence

Even so, when it has been stretched as much as it has, just getting to neutral hasn’t been enough to stop the selling pressure.

When we look at other times the S&P 500 was at a multi-year high within the past month, and the spread between Confidence went from beyond -50% to narrower than -25%, we see that every time, there was more work to do on the downside.


Clusters of Hindenburg Omen signals

They're baaaaaaack.

Technical warning signs are popping up again on the NYSE and Nasdaq (and individual indexes). The first and biggest caveat is that there were even more warnings last November, and those suffered a rare failure. We tend to place more weight on recent occurrences and while these signals have 50+ years of history, the fact that the last signal failed is notable. Not enough to ignore the current ones, not by a long shot, but still.

In recent days, 4 Hindenburg Omen signals have been triggered on the NYSE and 2 Hindenburg Omen signals have been triggered on the NASDAQ.

Hindenburg Omen on the Nasdaq

When these signals cluster on both exchanges, it's been tough for the Nasdaq to hold onto further gains.

Hindenburg Omen signals

For more detailed background information on the Omen and how to use it, check out this overview video.

This is an abridged version of our recent reports and notes. For immediate access with no obligation, sign up for a 30-day free trial now.

We also looked at:

  • The ISM survey rose above 50 for the first time in months
  • Market impacts after other major short selling bans (like China just instituted)
  • What happens after the S&P 500 ends a streak without a 3% pullback
  • Oil has gone down almost every day for a month
  • Semiconductors fell below their medium-term average for the first time in months
  • Signs of breadth panic in Chinese stocks on the Shanghai exchange
DATA &
TECHnologies
IndicatorEdge
‍
BackTestEdge
‍
Other Tools
‍
DataEdge API
RESEARCH
reports
Research Solution
‍
Reports Library
‍
actionable
Strategies
Trading Strategies
‍
Smart Stock Scanner
‍
FREE
RESOUrCES
Simple Backtest
Calculator
Simple Seasonality
Calculator
The Kelly Criterion
Calculator
Sentiment Geo Map
‍
Public Research Reports
‍
Free Webinar
COMPANY
‍
About
‍
Meet our Team
‍
In the News
‍
Testimonials
‍
Client Success Stories
Pricing
Bundle pricing
‍
Announcements
‍
FAQ
© 2024 Sundial Capital Research Inc. All rights reserved.
Setsail Marketing
TermsPrivacyAffiliate Program
Risk Disclosure: Futures and forex trading contains substantial risk and is not for every investor. An investor could potentially lose all or more than the initial investment. Risk capital is money that can be lost without jeopardizing ones’ financial security or life style. Only risk capital should be used for trading and only those with sufficient risk capital should consider trading. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

Hypothetical Performance Disclosure: Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations, some of which are described below. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown; in fact, there are frequently sharp differences between hypothetical performance results and the actual results subsequently achieved by any particular trading program. One of the limitations of hypothetical performance results is that they are generally prepared with the benefit of hindsight. In addition, hypothetical trading does not involve financial risk, and no hypothetical trading record can completely account for the impact of financial risk of actual trading. for example, the ability to withstand losses or to adhere to a particular trading program in spite of trading losses are material points which can also adversely affect actual trading results. There are numerous other factors related to the markets in general or to the implementation of any specific trading program which cannot be fully accounted for in the preparation of hypothetical performance results and all which can adversely affect trading results.

Testimonial Disclosure: Testimonials appearing on this website may not be representative of other clients or customers and is not a guarantee of future performance or success.