Rebounding Consumer Confidence

The U.S. economic recovery is evident across a broad array of economic data. The Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index is slowly rebounding from lows that were reached during the lockdown:

When Consumer Confidence fell to a 2 year low and then rebounded over the next half year, the S&P 500's returns over the next 3-12 months were mixed. Sometimes the S&P's post-recession gains had mostly been played out, which accounts for the bearish historical cases.

As for the USD, this led to more bearish than random forward returns over the next few weeks and months:

This also led to mostly mixed returns for gold: