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More shocking economic data

Troy Bombardia
2020-04-03
Employment related figures continue to be shocking and are tipping more models into bearish territory. But this time may be different from the past, given that the bear market has been so rapid and sudden.

As Jason noted, more and more buy/sell models are triggering bearish warnings. Unemployment will certainly spike when the figure is released today, pushing the Unemployment Rate Model into a sell signal as well. 

*The following chart is as of February 2020. This will probably trigger a sell signal today since stocks crashed in March and Unemployment is set to spike:

But as Jason mentioned, most historical bear markets began in a slow-rolling fashion. The bear market right now has been sudden and rapid, so perhaps this isn't as bearish for stocks as it was in the past.

Meanwhile, Ryan Detrick noted that M2 Money Stock has surged more than 12% YoY:

Such a rapid increase in the Money Supply was a good sign for stocks in the past. This occurred near the bottom of the stock market's crash in 2011, after the worst of the 2007-2009 bear market, and after 9/11. The earliest false signal came in January 1982, 7 months before the S&P hit a major long term bottom and roared throughout the 1980s and 1990s.

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