Jobless Claims Hit 52-Week High

One of the basic inputs we've used in the simple recession probability model is the 4-week average of jobless claims. The figure released today shows another uptick, and the 4-week average just hit a 52-week high.

When claims went from a 52-week low to a 52-week high, stocks have struggled somewhat over the medium-term, especially two months later. The table only includes times when the S&P 500 was within 10% of its own 52-week high.