ISM recovery

The U.S. economy's ongoing recovery pushed the ISM manufacturing index to the highest level in almost 2 years. This comes after an extremely quick and sharp recession:

When the ISM manufacturing PMI cycled from 42 (contraction) to 56 (expansion) over the past 12 months, much of the market's gains were already booked in. Economic data often lags the stock market, so by the time manufacturing data improved markedly, much of the stock market's rally had already occurred:

Similarly, ISM new orders surged to the highest level in almost 2 decades. The last time this happened was in 2003, as the 2003-2007 bull market began:

Historical cases in which ISM new orders > 67 usually saw more gains over the next 6 months. However, most of these gains were quite small, once again suggesting that much of the rally is behind us: