Goldman Model Predicts Trouble As Grains Get Hit
-
Jason Goepfert
Published: 2018-09-06 at 09:05:39 CST
This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.
Model trouble
A Goldman Sachs model incorporating five fundamental factors shows a high risk of an imminent bear market in stocks.
When the model reaches its current level, the average S&P 500 return over the next six months was negative 6%.
No gains for grains
Combined sentiment toward corn and soybeans has been among the lowest since 1991.
When a 5-day average of the Optimism Index for both contracts was this low, forward returns in the DBIQ Diversified Agriculture Index were decent, especially shorter-term, and soybeans tended to do better than corn.
Defensive
Utilities were the best-performing sector on Wednesday with more than a 1% gain. Tech was the biggest loser, with more than a 1% loss. Since the inception of XLU and XLK, this has happened 64 times, and it was mildly negative for stocks in the short-term.
For access to the full report, indicators, charts, screens, and Backtest Engine, log in or sign up for a free 30-day trial today. |
Related Posts:
- The buck loses its trend, while commodities gain theirs
- A reversal in commodity trends suggests higher prices
- Even as stocks tickled new highs, a historic thrust in breadth
- A KOLD-blooded approach to trading
- It's the most platinum time of the year
Tagged As:
The post titled Goldman Model Predicts Trouble As Grains Get Hit was originally published as on SentimenTrader.com on 2018-09-06.
At SentimenTrader.com, our service is not focused on market timing per se, but rather risk management. That may be a distinction without a difference, but it's how we approach the markets. We study signs that suggest it is time to raise or lower market exposure as a function of risk relative to probable reward. It is all about risk-adjusted expectations given existing evidence. Learn more about our service , research, models and indicators.
Follow us on Twitter for up to the minute analysis of market action.
Follow @sentimentraderNot ready to signup up for a free trial yet?
Signup for our Daily Lite email to receive highlights of our daily report, research and studies.
Follow us on Twitter:
Follow @sentimentraderSubscribe to our Youtube Channel:
RSS Feed
Subscribe to the Blog RSS feedTags
Recent Blog Posts
Brought to you by:
>