Data &
Technology
Research
Reports
Report Solutions
Reports Library
Actionable
Strategies
Free
Resources
Simple Backtest Calculator
Simple Seasonality Calculator
The Kelly Criterion Calculator
Sentiment Geo Map
Public Research Reports
Free Webinar
Pricing
Company
About
Meet Our Team
In the News
Testimonials
Client Success Stories
Contact
Log inLoginSign up
< BACK TO ALL REPORTS

Don't be worried about inflation until this happens

Jason Goepfert
2021-04-30
Inflation is on almost every investor's mind right now, and there is a precise level of rising prices when stocks do best.

Inflation is very much on the minds of investors as government spending and debt, and deficits soar. Many are experiencing that gnawing feeling that they should "do something" to protect themselves.

But is now the right time? And what about the old saw that stocks are a good hedge against inflation? 

This piece will detail one simple approach to keeping inflation from acting as a detriment to your stock market performance. To see the full post with more details and charts, click here.

HOW TO MEASURE INFLATION

The standard measure of inflation is the 12-month change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI). The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is a measure that examines the weighted average of prices of a basket of consumer goods and services, such as transportation, food, and medical care. It is used to assess price changes associated with the cost of living and one of the most frequently used statistics for identifying periods of inflation or deflation.

WHEN TO MEASURE INFLATION

For testing purposes, at the end of each month, we will look at the latest reported 12-month rate of change in the Consumer Price Index. 

HOW TO EVALUATE INFLATION

In generic terms, like Goldilocks, we want our inflation not too hot and not too cold.

  • Too hot inflation is bad because it throws cost estimates out the window and can cause massive economic disruption - something the market rarely takes kindly to.
  • Too cold inflation (or deflation, a trend of falling prices) can cause a downward economic spiral that is ugly for everyone.

The question then is...what is the right rate of inflation?

There is, of course, no such thing, partly because there are many other factors that affect the stock market beyond just inflation. Still, as far as deeming inflation "too high, too low or just right," we will use a straightforward method that can be referred to as "The 4% Inflation Solution."

THE 4% INFLATION SOLUTION

We will evaluate how the stock market has performed when inflation is:

  • Greater than or equal to +4%
  • Less than or equal to -4% (i.e., significant deflation)
  • Greater than -4% but less than +4%

For our test, we will use monthly data from February 1914 through February 28 to determine the latest 12-month rate of change in the Consumer Price Index and the monthly closing price for the Dow Jones Industrial Average.

The chart below displays the cumulative price performance for the Dow during those times when inflation is in the "Not too hot, not too cold" range of above -4% but below +4%.  

Dow Industrials during inflation

To see the full post with more details and charts, click here.

As you can see in the chart above, just because inflation is not running too hot or too cold does not mean that you can't have bear markets. Inflation is only one factor that can impact the stock market.  

To see the full post with more details and charts, click here.

Stat Box

On an average day over the past month, 16% of Consumer Discretionary stocks have traded at a 52-week high. This is the 2nd-largest amount in the past 5 years, exceeded only by a few days in January 2018.


What else we're looking at

  • Returns in the Dow when inflation is in various modes
  • What consumer confidence looks like now
  • There is an extreme number of consumers that are very confident in stocks
  • What the dollar looks like in May (the euro, too)
  • Energy stocks just triggered a rare breadth signal
DATA &
TECHnologies
IndicatorEdge
‍
BackTestEdge
‍
Other Tools
‍
DataEdge API
RESEARCH
reports
Research Solution
‍
Reports Library
‍
actionable
Strategies
Trading Strategies
‍
Smart Stock Scanner
‍
FREE
RESOUrCES
Simple Backtest
Calculator
Simple Seasonality
Calculator
The Kelly Criterion
Calculator
Sentiment Geo Map
‍
Public Research Reports
‍
Free Webinar
COMPANY
‍
About
‍
Meet our Team
‍
In the News
‍
Testimonials
‍
Client Success Stories
Pricing
Bundle pricing
‍
Announcements
‍
FAQ
© 2024 Sundial Capital Research Inc. All rights reserved.
Setsail Marketing
TermsPrivacyAffiliate Program
Risk Disclosure: Futures and forex trading contains substantial risk and is not for every investor. An investor could potentially lose all or more than the initial investment. Risk capital is money that can be lost without jeopardizing ones’ financial security or life style. Only risk capital should be used for trading and only those with sufficient risk capital should consider trading. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

Hypothetical Performance Disclosure: Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations, some of which are described below. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown; in fact, there are frequently sharp differences between hypothetical performance results and the actual results subsequently achieved by any particular trading program. One of the limitations of hypothetical performance results is that they are generally prepared with the benefit of hindsight. In addition, hypothetical trading does not involve financial risk, and no hypothetical trading record can completely account for the impact of financial risk of actual trading. for example, the ability to withstand losses or to adhere to a particular trading program in spite of trading losses are material points which can also adversely affect actual trading results. There are numerous other factors related to the markets in general or to the implementation of any specific trading program which cannot be fully accounted for in the preparation of hypothetical performance results and all which can adversely affect trading results.

Testimonial Disclosure: Testimonials appearing on this website may not be representative of other clients or customers and is not a guarantee of future performance or success.